Thanksgiving Football, NFL Picks

Quick little rant on Thanksgiving football. Anybody who hosts Thanksgiving and does not allow the tv to be on should never be allowed to host Thanksgiving. Football is as synonymous with Thanksgiving as turkey, mashed potatoes, and pumpkin pie. I can put up with having the tv muted during actual mealtime, but that is it. I constantly hear of guys who will not be able to watch games on Thanksgiving because it is not allowed. WHY!!! The more time family members are forced to talk with each other w/o the distraction of a tv can only lead to problems.

Put the games on, it will allow everyone to get along better. Embrace it, do not fight it.


NFL Picks
The picks are holding steady if not spectacular. I am now 87-71 for the season. I have to be honest due this early week I have not even seen the lines yet, in fact I will first predict what I think the line should be, then post my pick with the actual line

Green Bay
Detroit

My guess GB-10. Actual Line GB-11.

Oakland
Dallas

My guess Dallas -14. Actual Line -14.

Giants
Denver

My guess Giants-2. Actual Line NY-7.

Tb
Atlanta

My guess Atlanta -10. Actual Line -12

Miami
Buffalo

My guess Miami -5. Actual Line -3.

Cle
Cin

My guess Cin -9. Actual Line -14

Sea
Stl

My guess Sea -6. Actual Line -3.

Car
NYJ

My guess NYJ-4. Actual Line -3

Was
Phi

My guess Phi -9. Actual Line -9.

Ind
Hou

My guess Ind -8. Actual Line Ind-3.5

KC
SD

My guess SD -14. Actual Line -14.

Jax
SF

My guess SF -3. Actual Line -3.

Chi
Min

My guess Min -9. Actual Line -11.

Ari
Ten

My guess Ari -1. Actual Line -1.

Pit
Bal

My guess Bal -1. Actual Line NoLin.

NE
NO

My guess NO -3. Actual Line -3.

Packers' Season Depends on Lessons Learned

The Packers won a big game versus Dallas. Another loss at home would have put the Packers in a very tough spot to have any shot at the playoffs. With that win they remain on pace for a wild card spot, got a win against a legit team, and possibly found their identity.

That last part could be the key to the season. The Packers need to manufacture wins. They absolutely have to win with an aggressive defense, smart offense, and field position. This may not be exciting, but with the play of the offensive line the team needs to completely forget about the big passing play down field. This line cannot hold up for long enough to get a pass 30 yards down field. Combine that with the fact I do not think this line can hold up for an entire 10 play drive on a consistent basis and this team needs to know who they are.

They can get into ideal field position and scoring opportunities with their defense. The blitzing style needs to be the staple of the defense on any passing situation. If they can continue to stifle the run, they should be able to blitz when necessary.

The offense needs to come to the realization that they are not the show. They thought they would be, but with that line, they cannot be a consistent high scoring offense. Their goals need to change. Each possession's goal at this point should be to get at least two first downs to always change field position. Once they get to that point, then the big play may be there, but still look to just move the sticks.

The game against SF will show us if the Packers have learned who they are or not. SF has a poorly rated pass defense. So what. The Packers need to focus on the running game and short passing to move the sticks. If they revert back to thinking they are the Air Coryell Chargers of the 70s/80s, then we will know they have learned nothing.

Above all things, the Packers need to learn that winning ugly is still a win. Rodgers is a talented QB, but he needs to use that talent to just move the sticks and not always be looking for a big strike. He did that against Dallas, and if he and the rest of the offense learned anything, the rest of the season could get very interesting. If the team comes out looking deep every play to start the SF game they obviously learned nothing and will be lucky to get to 8 wins.

NFL Picks
The picks are holding steady if not spectacular. I am now 79-63 for the season. That is a little over 55% which is not bad in today's NFL.



Mia
Car -3

Brown being out for the year will hurt Miami and I think Carolina is a team to watch in a wide open NFC. At this point in the NFC, all you need is an identity and that can carry you. The Panthers run the ball, and run it well. Losing Jordan Gross at LT could be their undoing though.

Cle
Det -4

I read that they only expect around 40,000 for this game.

Buf
Jax -9

Jauron was a player's coach so I do not see the team responding well to losing him. Jax can be a sleeper in the second half.

Pit -10
KC

I cannot take KC against Pittsburgh.

Ind -1
Bal

Baltimore needs to get back to being a physical running team. Why in the hell are they passing it so much? Indy gets their first loss here.

Atl
NYG -7

Atlanta is not a huge team and this will be a tough spot against a big, physical, angry Giants team.

SF
GB -7

Green Bay should win, but if they follow the plan I laid out earlier, they will win an ugly game.

Sea
Min -11

Minnesota is better, but I am not sure they will come out ready to play. Last week it was Detroit, this week Seattle. I foresee another flat performance.

Was
Dal -11

I think Washington can make this close.

NO -11
TB

New Orleans is not playing fast break football like they did earlier in the season. They look like a team that could use a loss to release some of the pressure of being undefeated.

Ari -9
Stl

The Rams are still playing hard, but I don't think it will matter.

NYJ
NE -11

I think the Jets are on the verge of sinking the ship, they are taking on a lot of water at this point.

Cin -10
Oak

Since the Raiders are benching Jamarcus the Horrible, I think they can get a cover this week.

SD
Den

This line has not been released yet but either way I am taking the Chargers. Philip Rivers is really in a groove.

Phi -3
Chi

This is a tough game to pick. I am going with Philly for this reason, I think the fans of Chicago so badly want a change in management and coaching that they will be looking for anything to boo at. I do not think the team will respond well to that.

Ten
Hou -4.5

This will be an entertaining game. Chris Johnson is so ridiculously fast and fun to watch. Now that defenses have to respect Vince Youngs scrambling it puts them in poor position to defend Johnson. The Titans will be a tough out for the rest of the year since they are gaining confidence.

Bringing Back the Power Ratings
Favorites: Indy, New England, New Orleans, Minnesota. I don't care about records or whatnot, these are the four favorites at this point.

Contenders: Arizona, Dallas, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Diego. These four teams are the next tier, all have the ability to get to the super bowl.

Wild Card Good: Giants, Eagles, Packers, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Ravens, Texans, Denver, Titans. The Titans may have played themselves out of the playoffs with their bad start, but I think they can be a really tough team to play down the stretch.

Not Crappy, Not Good: Jags, 49ers, Jets, Seattle, Chicago, Washington. The Jags, 49ers, and Jets can still make some noise. I think Seattle, Chicago and Washington may be done.

Crap: Cleveland, St Louis, Detroit, Buffalo, Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay. These are all bad teams, worse yet, I am not sure what you can pinpoint to fix these teams. Cleveland has no hope for at least a couple of drafts/off seasons. St Louis needs a lot, a QB, OLine, depth. Buffalo needs a QB and a Line. Oakland needs a QB and most importantly new management, they actually have enough talent on defense to win. KC needs everything, I think Cassel will be a bust, the OLine is bad, the defensive personnel fits very bad into the 3-4. TB may have the QB and a decent OLine so they could make a quick turnaround if they can fill in some pieces on defense. I have no clue on Detroit, I think Stafford can be good but they need a lot.

Packers Last Stand and NFL Picks

The Packers have exhausted me as a fan. The Favre drama has been a huge cloud all season, but the crappy OLine, sacks, play calling, penalties and special teams have all been much a bigger problem. The Tampa loss was inexcusable. If there was a blueprint in how to lose a game to an outmatched team, the Packers followed it to perfection.

Give up a blocked kick for a TD - Check
Continue to pass, even when running 5 yards/carry and a strong wind - Check
Failing to protect the QB in the second half - Check
Giving back momentum on kick returns - Check
Turnovers - Check

It was horrible. If the Packers would have ran the ball every single play in the game I actually think they could have won. The turnovers and sacks gave the Bucs life.

Anybody who has been TT detractor can get no arguments at this point. His draft picks are 50/50 hit or miss, which is fine if you look for trades or free agency. The fact that he only uses the draft magnifies the misses like Harrel, Brohm, Murphy, Colledge, Hawk, Jackson and Lee. All 1st and 2nd round picks that have failed or been a disappointment.

Here is my quick-fix armchair GM Plan:
1. The Packers should seriously look at bringing in the best interior offensive lineman available in FA, forget tackles in FA since they are overpriced.
2. Play Lang at LT the rest of the season to see if he can do it.
3. Trade a 2nd rounder for a RT. The Eagles got a stud LT in Peters for a 2nd rounder, it can be done.
4. Franchise Kampman, then trade him for a pick or more veteran help or both.
5. Use our 1st round pick on the best available player that fits the 3-4. Whether it is another DLineman or the LB McClain from Alabama. Get another great fit like Mathews.
6. Use the pick we get for Kampman on a play maker. Ideally CJ Spiller from Clemson, but any game breaker with speed. The Packers need a player like Harvin or Desean Jackson. There are a lot of them, Pittsburgh was able to draft Wallace in the 3rd round last year. The Packers need a returner and offensive player that is a threat to go 80 yards, preferably a RB and that is why I mention Spiller.

This game against the Cowboys should indicate how the rest of the season will go. If the Packers get blown out the team has quit on this staff, and the team will win 6 games or less. If the Packers win then they could possibly get to 9 wins, more likely 8. If they lose a close game the rest of the season could go in any direction. The Packers are overrated by themselves and media and fans. The preseason provided a false hope. This team is rebuilding with a couple of veterans sprinkled in to make things look good.


Picks
The week got off to a rough start with the loss last night due to 5 Cutler picks. Three were not his fault as a WR fell, ref got in the way, and a safety badly interfered. The two redzone picks were his fault and inexcusable. My record is 71-57.

Jax
Jets -7


Den -3.5
Was

Cin
Pit -7

Buf
Ten -7

Det
Min -16.5

New Orleans -13.5
Stl

Atl -1.5
Car

TB
Mia -10

KC
Oak -2

Sea
Ari -9

Phi
SD -1.5

Dal -3
GB

NE
Ind -3

Bal -10.5
Cle

Bears-49ers Pick

Tonight is the start of Thursday night football. I love the NFL, but I actually do not think we need an NFL game on Thursday. Thursday is the one night with great tv shows. "The Office", "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia", "The League", "30 Rock" and even "Parks and Recreation" all cue up on my DVR. There is plenty to watch on Thursday nights. Here is an idea, move the game to Friday night, and when college football wraps up in early December have a Friday and Saturday night game each week. Just a thought.

Bears
49ers -3.5

For the Bears-49ers the line is moving up to 3.5. The Bears have been blown out twice recently by the Cardinals and Bengals. The blowouts are alarming and it is obvious that bettors are jumping on that. As Lee Corso would say, Not So Fast My Friend. Yes the Bears, like the Packers, are very flawed, but those blowouts were to one sure-fire Hall of Famer in Kurt Warner, and if Carson Palmer can stay healthy for the rest of his career, he will have an argument. I do not want to be captain obvious here, but the 49ers do not have a potential Pro Bowler at QB let alone Hall of Famer. Teams that are that outmatched at QB should not get more than 3 points.

Do the Packers have any Shot at Cowher?

As you can tell by the title, I have already assumed the coaching staff will be axed. In reality, we are probably stuck with this head coach for at least one full year, likely two before the Packers actually do something about it.

I have been complaining about the coaching since the Cincinnati game and the same problems keep coming up, bad special teams, penalties, sacks, ugh. If those problems are not enough to get a coach fired, then the fact it looks like the players have given up on him should factor in. On the early touchdown to Jones it looked like McCarthy was getting on the WRs for the excessive celebration penalty(which was later picked up) it looked like the receivers were completely ignoring him. The special teams problems are so widespread it is shocking.
They give up big kick returns.
They give up a blocked punt for a TD.
To start the second half, the special teams is the reason the Packers start inside the 10.

That second half kickoff play signifies my issue with what is going on. How can a team come out to start the second half and look so uninterested? This team thinks they are much better than they are and has lost the ability to grind out wins.

I do not think there is a very great chance of the Packers getting Bill Cowher, but at this point that is what they need. Us Packer fans have had enough of the West Coast style in Green Bay. We need a physical style, a coach committed to setting the tone with a physical running game. That running game was the one thing Sherman did have, if he never would have been given the GM title, who knows, but the Packers were a physical running team.

Rumors get started out of thin air, then build momentum, and all of a sudden it is reported on ESPN "Packers looking at Cowher". Like I said, I have little confidence that the Packers will get Cowher, but something needs to happen. And if Cowher were brought in, Capers could be retained as DC since they worked together in Pittsburgh. The fact that the DC would not also have to be bought out could lighten the overall amount of money needed to clean house. McCarthy is so lost at this point that I do not think it is salvageable. Can the Packers get to 7 wins?

Thompson Too
To go along with McCarthy, I think it is best for the Packers to completely clean house. To just get rid of anything associated with the Brett Favre breakup. I don't even care who is right or wrong at this point, this has split a fan base that continues to bitch back and forth. We need an exorcism of the entire mess that happened with Favre.
Target a coach, whether it is Cowher, Shanahan, or even Fischer if he becomes available. Work with them to also get a GM in place. Do not just go get a GM and hope he can get a coach. The Packers need an established coach and at this point to get one that coach will want some say as to who he will be working with. I am OK with that as long as it is that GM in charge of personnel, while Cowher coaches. Cowher got to a super bowl with Neil Odonnel and to AFC Championships with Kordell Stewart. He is my dream choice.

Packer Best Case Scenario for Rest of Season
Here is my best case scenario for the rest of the season. Packers beat the Cowboys, but Rodgers suffers a non serious season ending injury. Something like a bad, high ankle sprain. To go ever further, have Rodgers injury occur on a game winning TD pass. Then he gets shelved for the year because if Rodger actually endures the 70 sacks he is on pace for, he will be shell-shocked and virtually done as an effective QB.
This way, Rodgers could go out on a high note with confidence restored. The team would also display how poor they were setup at the OLine and backup QB spots. That is bad GMing, and if Rodgers did get hurt I think the rumblings would get loud enough from a national perspective that the Packers would have to do something.


Look, I hate this. It was just a couple of years ago that we had to go through this with Sherman. Once Sherman became GM and Head Coach, it signified his end was not too far off. It is too hard to do both and once Thompson was hired as GM, there was no way Sherman was setup to continue success as a head coach. I really think it is best to clean house, put the Favre mess behind our entire fan base, and find a coach that will instill a physical identity.

NFL Picks Week 9

I am so glad the Favre drama is over for the year. The Vikings are a better team than the Packers, and with Favre they are much better. Both games were blowouts before the Packers could do anything on offense. After the first game I was willing to say it was a bad bounce here, bad call there that put the Packers behind. After the second game it is just obvious that the Vikings are better than the Packers in every aspect of football. If it wasn't for that fluky squib kick, the game would have stayed a blowout. We will see if Favre can hold up down the stretch, but it will not matter if these teams meet again or not. The Packers do not even try to run the ball, they have a flawed pass protection scheme, and a qb that plays his best when the team is down multiple scores. I still do not blame many of the sacks on Rodgers. A couple were on him on Sunday, but what about all the sacks he avoids because of a broken tackle, or being elusive. The fact that he was the leading rusher, by far, on Sunday speaks to the major issue.

Onto the Picks
My college picks are 26-23 for the year, NFL picks are 62-52, 13-7 on my fav picks.

I like no college games. This is what this shitty system gives us. If all of these teams with one or two losses were still fighting for an 8 or 16 team playoff spot, this weekend could still be great. It would add great importance to the Penn State-Ohio State game, and so many other teams would still have something to shoot for. I think Alabama will win against LSU but I do not like the line at 7.5 either way. Oregon could be in trouble against Stanford, but I think they will hold on.


KC
Jax -6.5

Bal -3
Cin

Hou
Ind -9

Was
Atl -10

GB -10
TB

Ari
Chi -3

Mia
NE -10.5

Car
NO -13

Det
Sea -10

Ten
SF -4

SD
NYG -5

Dal
Phi -3

Pit -3
Den

NFL Picks Week 8

Last week I scraped by on a 7-5 record and 2-2 on Fav Five picks, running my yearly ATS record to 55-46, 13-7.

The college picks are now at 24-23 after a horrible 1-6 week. This is the real tough part of the season for college betting as we do not know how certain teams react when they fall completely out of national title and conference races.

College Picks

Texas -9.5
Oklahoma State

Texas. Oklahoma State will miss Dez Bryant too much. Programs like USC, Texas and Florida can lose a star player and still be great. Programs on the next tier like Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State and Oregon cannot lose a standout like Bryant.


USC -3
Oregon

Oregon. Oregon is playing as well as anyone in the country now. They should be favored in this game.


NFL Picks

Denver
Balt -3.5

Baltimore. Denver is a good story, but Baltimore is much more physical than San Diego, New England and Dallas.

Cleveland
Chi -13

Chicago. I cannot take Cleveland.

Houston -3
Buffalo

Buffalo. I want to like Houston, but right when I start to trust them again, they lay a stinker. Here is another stinker.

SF
Indy -12.5

SF. This line seems a little high and I hate betting against Peyton. At some point these favorites have to lose against some of these lines.

Miami
NYJ -3

Miami. How is NY going to stop the Miami running game w/o Kris Jenkins in the middele?

Stl
Detroit -4.5


Detroit. How much would you have to be paid to watch this game and this game only. 3 straight hours, no channel flipping. I would not even start listening until the bid got up to $250. I value my weekends too much to watch this crapfest.

Seattle
Dallas -9.5


Seattle. There are several things that scare me about this game for Dallas.
1. Everybody thinks Dallas is great again after the Atlanta win.
2. The line opened at 9.5, almost all money is on Dallas, and Vegas is not moving it. They are daring people to take Dallas.

NYG
Philly

Giants. I was thinking Philly, but this is another game that has had all the money on one team, the Giants, yet vegas has moved this line a couple of points. I do not trust Philly, take out the big plays by Jackson last week and Washington was better. I know you cannot take away plays, but I do not trust a team where in a two week stretch they were outplayed by two of the worst teams in the league, Washington and Oakland, all but two plays.

Oak
SD -16.5

Oak. I have no idea. 16.5 seems like a lot of point.

Jax
Ten -3

Titans. They are due, at least that is what I have been telling myself all year.

Min
GB -3

Green Bay. The Packers will roll, this game could get ugly as there are a lot of things that line up well for the Pack.
1. Revenge from the first game.
2. The Packers are rested after a bye and then games against the Browns and Lions.
3. The Vikings are beat up, Packers, Ravens, then Steelers.
4. The Packers will not call off the dogs if they do get a lead.

Car
Ari -10

Arizona. I do not trust the Cardinals but at the same time there seems like a lot wrong with the Panthers right now.

Atl
NO -10

Falcons. Atlanta will find a way to stay close in a divisional game and the Saints will get a lot of closer games until they finally lose.