NFL Picks Week 3

Before I get into the picks here are some thoughts on the Packers.
The poor week two performance will either be a sign of an overrated team, or be the boost a young team needed. A couple of years ago when the Giants won the Super Bowl they had a game exactly like this, they lost week two in a blowout to Green Bay. Everybody was doubting Coughlin and thought the team was done. The Giants bounced back and we all know what happened.
The Packers are really young and probably needed a wake-up call. They should have gotten one last Sunday. Cincinnati is better than people think, but not that much better. They can be an eight or nine win team if things break right, you can say that about any sub-par team in the league.
For the first time since McCarthy has been the coach, I have some doubts. When he took over, I was instantly happy with the pace of the offense. We seemed to be one of the few teams that was not continually battling the play clock. A play ended, the next call was in, and the ball was snapped with plenty of time. I always like that, it shows your playcaller knows what he wants to do, likely ahead of time instead of guessing. It shows that there is a plan. I also was happy with the varied game plan each week, we never knew what was coming, and I really appreciated that. In the previous regime it was easy as a fan to predict the play on too much of a consistent basis. Ex. Red Zone, Shotgun, “Here comes the shovel pass!” I don’t know how many times we ran that, with such little success.

My problem now lies in McCarthy’s lack of altering his game plan, overall running of the team, and recurring problems. My major points:
1. How could pass protection be this bad again after the Bear game?
2. Penalties? Is there any emphasis on these? The real problem I have with these is that there are no holding calls, with as bad as Rodgers is getting beat up, you would think the Oline would start holding a little.
3. Another flat performance at home? There have been too many of these.
4. The WR drops? If this WR core is so good, CATCH THE BALL. This is a lack of concentration and could be due to poor practice habits.
5. No changes after halftime? The QB is getting killed, the LT is now out, and there were only three designed runs in the second half. Yikes! I don't care if you thought there were matchups to exploit on the outside, there is not enough time.
6. Have the Packers heard of Screens/Draws? Word is, these will slow down a pass rush.

I also think Thompson has to be questioned at this point. I always give a GM three to four years before I think they really can be criticized. Thompson got heat from day one due to losing Wahle and Rivera, something they financially had to do. Then, he received heat for the Favre drama. This also had to be done, but could have been handled cleaner, much cleaner. Here are my concerns:
1. The whole cutting Anthony Smith, keep Rouse/Bigby bothered me the day I heard about it, and now Rouse is gone and Bigby is again hurt, it looks even worse. The big problem is we are thin at safety, yet we keep the safety that Thompson chose over Smith. Makes little sense and feels like desperation.
2. There are three fullbacks on a roster that does not run the ball, while the secondary and Oline are nearly a mess.
3. The whole approach to the Oline. I am not a fan of drafting athletic guys that played different positions in college that you think you can mold into productive lineman. I am a fan of drafting guards and tackles that played at USC, the Big 10, the SEC, the ACC, or the Big 12, and then playing them at the position they played in college. Some movement makes sense, but we seem to move every player. I hate small school Olineman, maybe 1/5 can be from a small school but not the majority. Leave WRs and DBs to the small schools, the other positions belong to the big boys of college football. The competition you play matters, especially in the trenches.
4. What the hell is going on in the second round? Jackson, Colledge, Brohm, Lee, and even Jordy Nelson. I think Nelson will be fine, but for as many 2nd round picks as the Packers have had, way too many busts. This is the area you build the quality depth of the team. Jennings and Collins are great, but the rest of the picks have been poor at best. Imagine if the Colledge/Brohm/Jackson/Lee picks were offensive lineman from BCS conferences, the line would be much sturdier.

One thing that may fix both of their issues? I think it is time they really consider getting a much better RB. A better RB will force McCarthy to call more runs and will allow the line to run block and get into a rhythm. I know RB has been an ignored position due to the belief that you can always find a RB, and I think there is truth to that. The problem for the Packers seem to be they don't value it enough, and I think we are seeing that in the gameplan. I am not suggesting a 1st rounder, but a 2nd/early 3rd round pick need to be used at that position.

Onto the picks. For the year I am now 15-17. This is why you shouldn't actually bet every game, that is the advantage bettors have. There were three games last week I had no idea about, lost them all. A good rule of thumb is bet 5-6 games you really like. If you bet too few, bad breaks like fumbles or penalties or a missed kick can kill your weekend. Too many bets, and the books will catch up with you. I am going to keep my weekly overall tally, but from now on, I will also have 5 games I actually would bet and see if there is any difference in the results.

Tennessee
NY Jets -3

Tennessee. I think the Titans are too good to go 0-3 and the Jets are feeling a little too good about themselves. My feeling in the NFL is nobody is as bad as you think, and nobody is as good as you think.

Jacksonville
Houston -3.5

Jacksonville. No real thought on this game, I don't see a lot of teams going 0-3.

Kansas City
Philadelphia -8.5

Philadelphia. No idea here.

Cleveland
Baltimore -13

Baltimore. Or here.

NY Giants -7
Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay. Or here.

Washington -6.5
Detroit

Detroit. This could be where Detroit gets a win, things are not going well in Washington, we will see here if they respond.

Green Bay -6.5
St. Louis

Green Bay. This may be my blind faith here, but the Packers need to come out and show the athleticism they showed in the preseason. The WRs need to catch the ball and make plays, and the line(and Rodgers) need to allow 0 sacks this week.

San Francisco
Minnesota -6.5

San Francisco. This is a great game. These may be the two most physical teams in the NFC. The collisions between Willis and Peterson should be fun to watch. I think SF does enough to keep this game to a FG difference.

Atlanta
New England -4

New England. There is a little too much, "Patriots are done" going around. They have had two sub-par performances, and last week they were missing Wes Welker, who is Brady's safety valve vs the blitz. I am just saying, with Welker out, the Jets really went after Brady. If Welker were there to catch a quick pass and turn it into a big gain, the Jets would have scaled back the pressure. I also like the matchup of Brady versus the Falcons secondary. So far, Atlanta has played Carolina and Miami, not exactly explosive passing games. If Atlanta can win here, then they are legit contenders for the top team in the NFC.

Chicago -1.5
Seattle

Chicago. This would be a tough pick if Hasselback were in. I think the crowd will keep Seattle in it, but Chicago will pull it out.

New Orleans -6
Buffalo

Buffalo. I love Brees, but Buffalo is very underrated and they posses the one thing needed to beat the Saints, the abiliy to get to the quarterback with the front four. The front four will harrass Brees and this will be a close game.

Miami
San Diego -6

San Diego. I think this one gets ugly. Miami has to be dejected after the crushing loss to Indy last week. I think Rivers has a huge game here.

Pittsburgh -4
Cincinatti

Pittsburgh. Cincy has become a popular upset pick here due to the Packer win, but lets revisit that win. The Packers played one of their worst games in three seasons(Bears 2006 season opener, @Bears December 2007 were the other two stinkers) and yet the Packers still had a chance to tie the game at the last second. Pittsburgh is never flat, and I think they get after Palmer in this one.

Denver -2
Oakland

Denver. Denver may be a little better than I thought. I did not think they had enough beef up front in the 3-4 but we will see. Russel is the worst QB in the NFL, even worse than Delhomme. I cannot take them.

Indy
Arizona -2.3

Arizona. The Indy defense has to be gassed after the Monday game at Miami. They were on the field for 85 of the possible 60 minutes, that has to be a record. This will be one of the games Indy gets blown out. They seem to get one every year where they know they do not have it and get crushed.

Carolina
Dallas -8.5

Carolina. Too many points for me to give Dallas at this point. Also, this is kind of a last chance for the Panthers. I could see Williams and Stewart both having big games in this one to make it interesting.


Those are the picks. Here are the five I would bet on:
1. Tennessee +3
2. San Fanscisco +6.5
3. New England -4
4. Arizona -2.5
5. San Diego -6