NFL Picks Week 6

At this point every team has played at least four games, giving us a pretty good idea of what some of these teams really are. I had a decent week last week and am now 42-33 ATS, my FAV FIVE is 10-5.

The NFL is suppose to be the league of parity, but man is there some massive separation between the top and bottom. It is too soon for me to see a lot of separation among the good teams, but I think we can get a very good idea of which group a team belongs at this point.

My very Official Ratings Groupings:

Favorites
Giants, Saints, Colts, Patriots

Contenders
Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, Bears, Falcons, Vikings

Good, but How Good?
Jets, Packers, Chargers, Cowboys, 49ers, Bengals, Broncos, Miami

Crap
Washington, Carolina, Arizona, Seattle, Lions, Buffalo, Houston, Jax, Tennessee

God Awful
Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Tampa Bay, Cleveland

Thoughts on the Groupings
1. The Giants are great on both lines, but their best win is the Cowboys, I need to see more before annointing them the best team in the league. They are good.

2. The Steelers are not as good as last year. That is not a crime, they won the Super Bowl. Aaron Smith being out for the year will wear on that LB core as they will now get blocked in the run game. Smith is a GREAT 3-4 DE, this is a very under-rated injury.

3. The Ravens are still good, but they have been brought down to what they actually are. Very good, not great.

4. The Saints and Colts are the best teams in the league. They have beaten better competition than the other top teams in the league and look really, really good.

5. Miami looks like they could be really dangerous now. Chad Henne has a huge arm, and the field opens up now due to that arm.

6. The Patriots are still really good, they suffered another tough loss at Denver. Brady is just a little off yet, but I think he is getting closer to being back.

7. I have no idea how good the Packers are. Neither do they. Neither do you. When one unit on the team is as bad as the offensive line, you have no idea what you will get. They need to win the next four to be taken serious, Lions, Browns, Vikings and Bucs make that possible. If they win those four they will get talked up again. That is what the league is now. Because there are so many awful teams, all you have to do is win those games against crappy teams, steal a couple against good teams, and you have a shot at the playoffs.

Picks

KC
Washington -6.5

KC. There are more stories going around regarding the coach being fired, or how Snyder is positioning himself to go after his next coach than anything regarding the actual players. This team sucks. I cannot give a team that sucks a TD.

Houston
Cincinnati -4.5

Houston. Cincy is legit at this point, but they are coming down from a big win. This is a tough spot. Also, if anybody out there has any idea about Houston and what they are, let me know. They can beat anybody, they can lose to anybody.

Cleveland
Pittsburgh -14

Pittsburgh. Cleveland won last week by completing two passes. My guess is they complete three or more to Pittsburgh players this week. I am to the point of not ever taking a crappy team against a good team, and with some of these lines Vegas feels the same way. Think about these facts: This is a division rival, Cleveland has not suffered any major injuries, Pittsburgh has, and this line is still 14. Vegas is losing money because of these crappy teams and they will continue to lose money until these lines get over three scores.


Baltimore
Minnesota -2.5

Baltimore. I cannot wait for three weeks from now when Minnesota has lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and GB and everybody wonders what happened. I'll tell you what happened, they finally played somebody! The combination of too much sports talk combined with these unbalanced schedules forces us to anoint too many paper champions and write off too many teams too early. Ask yourself this, who is better, Miami or Minnesota now that Henne is the QB? Miami has lost at Atlanta, to the Colts in a game they controlled, and at San Diego and have now beaten the Jets. After week three they were completely written off.

Rams
Jax -9.5

Jax. I don't know how much you would have to pay me to force me to watch this game. Seriously, if you were forced to watch this game, and this game only, no channel changing, sit through all commercials, how much would it take? I would start at $500 before I would even consider it. AND THIS IS WEEK 6!

Giants
Saints -3

Saints. Vegas is trying really hard to keep this line at three by moving up the odds instead of the line. That always makes me nervous, but the Saints are so tough to beat in the controlled environment of the Superdome, and that was before they had a defense which they now have. Great Game.


Carolina -3.5
Tampa Bay

Tampa. I think Josh Johnson gives the Bucs a spark. With him already on the roster it makes me wonder why in the hell they drafted Josh Freeman. To lead the league in quarterbacks named Josh?

Detroit
Green Bay -13.5

Green Bay. If this game was not coming off the bye week I would not have taken GB. They will look good this week and maybe even next week, but then the penalties and sacks will start coming back. BLAH, BLAH, BLAH. I am getting myself ready for a change at the top whether it is MM or TT or both, but they will do just enough to keep that from happening. Feels like a 9-7 football team that will have left a lot of wins on the table. Frustrating.

Philadelphia -14
Oakland

Eagles. It would take a 17 point line before I would even think about Oakland.

Arizona
Seattle -3

Seattle. I cannot figure these teams out but I do know two things.
1 Seattle is much better when Hasselback is in.
2 Seattle is one of the few true home field advantages in the league.

Buffalo
Jets -9.5

Jets. This one feels tricky, but I cannot take a crappy Bills team over an angry Jets team.

Tennessee
New England -9

Patriots. Rookie corners trying to cover Moss and company, yeah, I'll give nine.

Chicago
Atlanta -3.5

Chicago. Last week everybody found out that the 49ers were not that good, this week it will be Atlanta. Underrated game.

Denver
San Diego -3.5

San Diego. This feels like one of those games where the Chargers show how talented they are, put on a whooping, which forces us to over-rate them again. I cannot believe they fired Marty. That does not get nearly enough pub. This was a 14-2 teams three years ago!

I am not gonna lie, I do not love these picks. There are too many lines over a touchdown, those are always tough covers. I cannot even come up with a FAV FIVE, there are not five games I have supreme confidence in. In fact, I am only giving one:
1. Baltimore