Week 4 NFL Thoughts Before Armageddon

I hope NFL fans enjoyed this weeks games, because next week is a stink-fest. On the DirectTV Sunday ticket channel guide section, as the 3 pm games started the guide was updated and displayed next week's games, ugh. Here are the noon games next week: Cleveland @ Buffalo, Dallas @ KC, Minnesota @ St Louis, Oakland @ Giants, TB @ Philly, Pittsburgh @ Detroit, Washington @ Carolina, Cincinnati @ Baltimore. Cincy @ Baltimore is the headliner, by a longshot. A very optimistic person cannot even make shit-salad out of that pile of games we get next week.


Is there a game tonight? I have no confidence in the Packer Oline tonight. In my mind, Favre will have very little to do with tonights game, but he can still go f@#k himself. The Vikings have the ability to dominate the game due to the mismatch of their Dline combined with an aggressive blitzing scheme going against an embarrassingly weak Oline for Green Bay. It was last year at the dome that the Oline looked really weak, if it is that way again, there is no chance for Green Bay to win.

If the Packers can get anything going on the ground, and maybe a screen or two thrown in early(a play McCarthy never uses, but really needs to start using to help slow down the pass rush) then Rodgers should get some time to expose a weak secondary. There are matchups in Green Bay’s favor, namely the Packer WRs and TEs against the LBs and secondary of Minnesota, but the line has been so porous that the playbook gets cut in half due to lack of time. There are two ways I would heavily attack Minnesota early in this game.
1. Run at Jared Allen, every single run.
2. Spread it out, 5 wide with quick throws early.

I think the Packers need to run at Allen early and often. When they want to pass, send in base personnel, but spread them out. With a package of Driver, Jennings, Lee, Finley, and Grant, the Packers can start in a base Ace formation with Rodgers under center, then shift to Rodgers in the Gun and Grant lined up as a WR. I do not feel this is a highly intelligent Viking team, and this shift should prevent any wild blitzes being called on the fly as the Packers shift at the LOS. Tire out the pass rush by running at it, then spreading it out and throwing it quickly. Let them chase around the recievers and get tired out. If I see any seven step drops from under center early in the game I will probably throw something.

One thing to think about. During big games, we usually can point out a weak spot and have that spot hammered throughout the week. That matchup this week is either the Packers run defense against Adrian Peterson or the matchup of the Viking pass rush versus the Packers Oline. For Green Bay to win tonight, one of these need be a win or a push for Green Bay.

There is also usually a mismatch that nobody talks about, tonight that could be the Packers secondary versus the Viking wide receivers or the Packers receivers against the Viking secondary. Both of these are advantages to Green Bay, which is important. The Vikings are better up front, and therefore, should be able to grind out some yards, but they have had trouble moving the sticks this season and have relied on the big play. I do not think that big play will come from the passing game, which may mean Minnesota has some trouble scoring if Peterson is controlled. If that is the case, then the mismatch of Packer wide receivers against the Viking secondary can create problems early if Green Bay can hit a couple big pass plays. If Green Bay gets a lead I do not think Minnesota will stay as patient as they have the first three games. In each game, the Vikings trailed at halftime, but stuck with the run. In the wild environment for tonights game, if Green Bay has an early lead, watch for Minnesota to get out of its comfort zone. This is the first explosive offense Minnesota has played, if they fall behind by 10 points or more, I do not think they stay patient.

I picked Minnesota in my picks from last week, but I am starting to talk myself into Green Bay. If Rodgers is as good as we Packer fans want him to be, they win tonight. That may be too plain and simple, but it is what it is. Rodgers needs a big win to completely eliminate Favre talk. In past situations where legends are replaced, Elway, Marino, Kelley, and now Favre, the incumbent quarterback never gets a chance to make it his team and have a moment to make everyone forget about the legend. Rodgers is the first one of those quarterbacks to get that chance, as he actually gets to play against that legend. If Rodgers is going to get to that next level of elite quarterback, how he performs tonight could go a long ways to determining how good he is.

Thoughts on the rest of the NFL

Titans are DoneThe Titans are done. I am not sure what happened, but this defense cannot stop anything now. I understand Haynesworth was huge, but come on. They must really miss Schwartz at defensive coordinator.

The Jets are Shut Up
At least we get one damn week where I do not have to hear about the Jets swagger, and that Mark Sanchez is the best quarterback in the history of football. This is the first game the Jets have been behind, AT ALL, and he sucked. I think Sanchez will be good, but my GOD, slow down the hype machine after three starts. Also, I heard about how much the Jets talk trash and have SWAGGER, but they are borderline dirty. We will see how this turns out for them. I love a team with confidence, but I don’t like dirty teams, and I saw a couple of cheap shots against the Saints.

Saints are NFC Favorite
With all apologies to the Giants, the Saints now have a serviceable defense, they are now the favorite in the NFC. The Giants and Saints play in a couple of weeks, so we will find out more than.

Peyton, Peyton, Peyton
Colts roll, again. Manning throws for 43,343 yards and 744 touchdowns. He doesn’t even have his second best receiver, Anthony Gonzalez, yet.

Baltimore, Welcome back to Earth
I said in my picks that I thought Baltimore was a little overrated due to their schedule. I watched the game and do think they are really good, but some “Experts” were putting this team at a level above everyone else, they are not. They are really good, along with four or five other teams in the AFC.

Denver Thinks they are Good
I also said in my picks that Denver thinks they are good, and picked them this week versus Dallas. It always shocks me when experts get shocked when a team like Denver wins this game. Shocked, really? Yes, Denver was 3-0 against weak competition, but how much tougher were the Baltimore wins? It seems that once a ball gets rolling, and last weak it was Denver has beat nobody, Ravens are the best, that the ball cannot be stopped, until that weeks games.

I am not sure what an exact power poll of the NFL should look like, but I think it could be grouped into something like

Favorites
Giants, Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Patriots

Contenders
Eagles, Bears, Falcons, Vikings

Good, but How Good?
Jets, Packers, Chargers, Cowboys, 49ers, Bengals, Broncos

Crap
Washington, Carolina, Arizona, Seattle, Lions, Buffalo, Miami, Houston, Jax, Tennessee

God Awful
Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Tampa Bay, Cleveland

A special congratulations need to go to Detroit for climbing out of God Awful and achieving Crap.