NFL Picks Week 13

I cannot believe it is already week 13. Wow it went fast.

College Picks
Oregon State +9.5, Alabama +6, Cincy -2, Georgia Tech -1, Nebraska +14

Alabama/Florida should be a great game. Alabama is built to stop Florida's spread. This game will come down to a special teams play or defensive score.

NFL
Last week I went 11-5 by utilizing a tactic I first used when betting several years ago. I would guess a line, and any line that was off from mine, I bet against. This strategy was very successful for years, then the bad year of 2005 came and a few teams covered no matter what. No matter what was thrown at them, Indy, NE, Pitt, and a couple others kept covering. It was one of the only years favorites won more ATS then dogs. I am going to bring that tactic back, I will post what I thought the line was going to be, then post the actual line next to the team. My overall record is 98-76.

New York Jets -3
Buffalo Bills
My Line: Jets -4
I missed this line by a point. The Jets are better, I will take them.

Philadelphia Eagles -6
Atlanta Falcons
My Line: Eagles -5
This line started at 4.5 and moved to 6, so I will take that as a win since 5 is right in there. I do not trust Philly even if Matt Ryan is missing.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers -7
My Line: Panthers -7
Nailed this line.

St. Louis Rams
Chicago Bears -9
My Line: Bears -5
This is the first line I really missed. I am sorry, I think the Rams are showing more fight than Chicago right now.

Detroit Lions
Cincinnati Bengals -13
My Line: Bengals -15
I thought this line would be on one side or the other of 14 and it was. At 15 I would have had a very tough choice, this is a no-brainer at 13.

Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts -7
My Line: Colts -6
I was really curious on this one. I think the 7 speaks to how Vegas can only go so low with Manning at home. I said a little while back that the Titans were a team to watch out for. Now, I think it can be argued that they are the 4th best team in the AFC. BTW, Chris Johnson is the best RB in the NFL, and no Adrian Peterson, it is not even close.

Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars -1
My Line: Jags -2
I think last weeks loss against the Colts could break the Texans back.

Denver Broncos -5
Kansas City Chiefs
My Line: Den -7
This line feels too low. I guessed 7 because that is the number where I would have even considered betting KC. If this number had been 8, this would have been a tough choice. At 5, are you kidding?

New England Patriots -3
Miami Dolphins
My Line: NE -10
Did someone get hurt that I am unaware of? This started at 6.5 and moved down to 3. Really? Does Vegas realize that what happened to NE on Monday was due to Drew Brees. SPOILER ALERT: Chad Henne is NOT Drew Brees.

Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers -15
My Line: Pitt -10
Is Big Ben officially back? I could see Pitt getting up two scores an taking him out. I do not trust teams that are not running full throttle with 15 points, even against the Raiders.

New Orleans Saints -10
Washington Redskins
My Line: NO -9
After the NE game there has to be a letdown. If I have learned anything in watching the NFL over the last few years it is this "Teams are rarely as good or bad as we think they are" After the performance against NE we think NO is really great.

San Diego Chargers -13
Cleveland Browns
My Line: SD -13
Nailed it.

Dallas Cowboys -2.5
New York Giants
My Line: NY -3
I think the Giants will save their season, for one week.

San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks -1
My Line: Sea -3
Seattle is so tough at home. I think that their home field advantage creates the biggest difference for any team in the league. It is worth much more than the standard 3, and likewise I think it creates just as big of a disadvantage for Seattle when they travel. Doesn't Seattle always feel like the most uneven team? You never know what you are going to get.

Minnesota Vikings -4
Arizona Cardinals
My Line: Min -3
Started at 3, moved up to 4. This is the best offense Minnesota has played. Arizona will be the first team to game plan against Favre first. They will matchup Adrian Wilson to shadow AP, allowing more guys in coverage. Brett will have his first, UGH, game of the season and it will come in the first game he was game planned against. Shocker.

Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers -3
My Line: GB -3
Can I win double if I bet a push? I think this line is perfect, and I think it hits right on the number.