Eagles-Cowboys Prediction

The Eagles-Cowboys game is the night game on Saturday. Over the years crazy things have happened on the Saturday night playoff game in the wild card round, divisional round, or both. I expect a highly entertaining game.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin

3rd Down %
Phi 36
Dal 40

3rd Down % Defense
Phi 33
Dal 35

The Downs stats virtually offset each other. Dallas is slightly better at converting, Philly is slightly better at defending 3rd down. Here is one note, this stat is a big reason I see Dallas having no chance at the Super Bowl. You need to be better than 40% at converting third downs. Big plays are usually limited in the playoffs meaning you need to move the sticks.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
Phi 358
Dal 399

Ave Points Scored
Phi 27
Dal 22

It is alarming that Dallas moves the ball as well as they do yet have as low of a scoring average as they do. Philly is a big play offense which is evident in their lower yardage totals but higher scoring.

Ave Yards Defense
Phi 321
Dal 316

Ave Points Allowed
Phi 21
Dal 15

The scoring stat is a big advantage for Dallas. The yards are almost identical for these teams but there is almost a touchdown difference in scoring.

Tunrover Margin
Phi 15
Dal 1

The stats comparison for this game are tough. Philly is a big play team, on offense and defense, that is always tough to gauge. Philly needs a big play to get things going, it only takes one for them to start rolling. Last week McNabb had Jackson a couple of times deep and badly missed on the throws.

The stats slightly lean towards the Cowboys. They convert 3rd downs slightly better, they move the ball better but do not score as much, their defense is better, but the Eagles win the turnover battle. I would not base my pick on stats for this game.

Quarterback
I am giving a slight nod to McNabb simply because he has actually won a playoff game. Until Romo gets a win, the pressure will be there. McNabb also had a bad game last weekend, he will have a better game this week. McNabb is one of the biggest reasons the Eagles have had consistent success but only one Super Bowl appearance. McNabb cannot go three games in a row without playing a bit of a stinker, he played a stinker in Arizona last year and that is why the Eagles lost.

Coach
This goes to Andy Reid by a landslide. He has never lost a first round playoff game, that is all about great coaching. He will have a great game plan this week, one predicated on getting first downs and not quite so much on the big play. Expect Rb screens, bubble screens, quick crossing routes, zone flooding. Reid will call quick read passes to slow down the Dallas rush. If things go as planned, in the second half when the Dallas pass rushers are tired, Reid will look to call some deeper drops for a possible big play. The pass rushers will be tired, miss the sack on McNabb, and get beat deep.

The difference in offensive complexity in this game will be staggering.

Defense
Dallas wins this category. But that advantage can be limited if McNabb can break just a couple of sacks and hits Jackson deep. McNabb can just drive you crazy, he can play a crappy game for 2.5 quarters then break a tackle and hit you with a 70 yard touchdown.

Dallas is getting a lot of love and it is deserved. They have one of the best pass rushes in the league with Ware and Spencer coming from the outside and Ratliff collapsing the middle.
Here are some issues I have:
1. Whenever everybody loves Dallas, they disappoint.
2. The Eagles throw out random stinker games every now and then, and it rarely foreshadows a trend.
3. The coaching advantage is very large.
4. Philly will find a way to make Dallas feel the pressure of the moment, I am not sure how Dallas will react.
5. Whenever everybody is down on Philly, they smack the shit out of you.

The line on this game is Dallas-4, over/under is 45. I think the Eagles will get this game into a fast pace. The Eagles will find a way to make a couple of big plays and I think Reid gets back to some west coast passing principles to move the sticks, Screens, Route Combos, etc. Reid will find a way to get McNabb into a rhythm with short passes. Then, at some point Jackson will break off a big play, whether it is a punt return or a broken play through the air. I think Dallas will move the ball but settle for too many field goals, while Philly will get a couple big play touchdowns to make the difference. This game will feel like Dallas should be winning but trading 3s for 7s will kill them in the end.

Eagles 27
Cowboys 26