Jets-Bengals Prediction

The Jets and Bengals square off in the first playoff game Saturday afternoon. In my mind this is the rematch where the previous game was absolutely meaningless, the Jets were desperate, the Bengals did not want to be there.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really three stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin

3rd Down %
NYJ 37
Cin 40

3rd Down % Defense
NYJ 31
Cin 38

Ave Yards per Game Offense
NYJ 321
Cin 309

Ave Points Scored
NYJ 22
Cin 19

Ave Yards Defense
NYJ 252
Cin 301

Ave Points Allowed
NYJ 15
Cin 18

Tunrover Margin
NYJ -2
Cin 3

Looking at just the stats, the Jets score more, give up less, move the ball slightly better, and give up much less yardage. In fact, the only two advantages that Cincinnati has are 3rd down conversion rate and the Turnover margin. The problem is that these two stats can be killers. If you cannot convert third downs you are punting which is like a turnover if done too often. The turnover margin is really the big problem, only the Raiders had more turnovers than the Jets in the AFC.

The Stats give the edge to the Jets and that is probably why Cincinnati is favored by less than a field goal.

Here are some other items that I think about but cannot really quantify, this is more based on my opinion through games I have seen through the years.

Quarterback
This is the biggie in this game. Carson is not near the elite level everybody thought he would be at. His injury has derailed him, and there is a lack of weapons currently on that offense. But the Jets are scared of Sanchez and should be. If the Bengals can get a 10 point lead this game will be over.

Coach
I give this category a push. I not only look at the head coach, but the entire staff. The Jets have a first year head coach, but he has been involved in playoff games. This is Marvin Lewis's second trip to the playoffs as a head coach. Both of these guys made their hay by being Ravens defensive coordinators. I like the Bengals D coordinator, but I think that is offset by the Jets Special Teams coach and offensive coordinator. I do not think either team will get a significant schematic advantage.

Defense
The Jets have a better defense on paper by looking at the yards and points allowed stats. But, due to the qb discrepency in this game this is really a push for me. The Bengals are a very tough defense with two shutdown corners that allow Mike Zimmer to call a lot of blitzes. Also, with David Harris possibly missing this game, I see a push here as well.

X Factor
This category is usually based on a gut feeling I have or any weird item I think will play into the outcome. This game has a couple. Rookie QB on the road in playoffs. Cincy playing for Zimmer's wife and Chris Henry.
The Rookie QB thing is a biggie, but do not underestimate teams with any emotional motivation and the Bengals have received two this year with the death of Chris Henry and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, who apparently the players loved.

Stats: Jets
QB: Bengals
Defense: Push
XFactor: Bengals

From my very scientific chart above I must pick the Bengals and I am. I think this game is very low scoring, both teams will run, run, run. There will be a lot of punts. The Bengals are not scared of their QB and they will get a tight win here.

Bengals 13-10.