NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

I had a horrible week in the wild card round going 0-4, after having a successful regular season at hitting over 55% of the games picking ATS I laid a stinker. I did go 3-1 in over/unders, but I always feel winning over/unders just comes down to luck.

Cards
Saints -7

Home field will be factor here. The old domes get so much louder than anywhere else. I also do not like the fact that Arizona has to play the early Saturday game, it makes no sense. The Packers and Cardinals play in a great, great playoff game, the last game of wildcard weekend, then the winner has to play the early game on Saturday? Why isn't the Cowboy-Viking game here? Lets put it this way, the Cardinals-Packers game saved a pitiful bunch of wildcard games for the NFL, so the NFL rewards the winner with a shorter week than any other team, for the only team that played a four quarter game. The NFL is great, but really makes some odd decisions.

I think the crowd, and the tired Cardinals are too much to overcome here. The Saints didn't take the foot off the gas during their end of season slump, they just ran out of gas. I think the Saints come out on fire, can the Cardinals match?

If I had one negative to point out about Warner it is this. He is a front-runner. When he is hot and his team jumps out quickly, he is great. During last season's run they were in the lead the entire playoffs, it was only in the super bowl where the team ever really trailed. If roles were reversed last weekend and it was Green Bay who got out to the early lead, I do not think Warner would have brought them back. He takes too many chances.

Saints jump out quickly and look much better than they are. Similar to the illusion they showed us for the first 13 weeks. 34-14



Baltimore
Indy -6.5

I would love to go with Baltimore here. I hate how Indy rested at the end of the year. But Indy is sick of hearing that. In past years where Indy rested, they heard how great they were for several weeks, not this year. Everybody is talking about how Indy will struggle here and they will be rusty. It will not matter.

Freeney and Mathis will create havoc if Baltimore is ever forced to throw. Another truth is that Baltimore and New York probably beat the two weakest playoff teams in New England and Cincinnati, Indy is a different animal.

But, the Saturday night game is always wild. I think the Colts will start slowly, you cannot take a month off and still keep things rolling. The Ravens will be able to keep this game ugly, saving Flacco from having to throw. Eventually in the second half Indy will grab a lead or get the game close with must throw situation, and they will get to Flacco. Indy 17-13.

Dallas
Minnesota -2.5

I flat out think Minnesota is in a lot of trouble due to matchups in this game. The pass rushing of Ware and Spencer could embarass McKinney and Loadholt. I am not too confident in the complexity of Childress's passing protections to adequetely adjust to these two players. Favre has kept himself clean all year so I do not think the Vikings are ready for this pass rush.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota will sorely miss EJ Henderson in this game. Dallas will run, run, run and without the thumper in the middle, Dallas should have success. I also am not sure who will matchup with Witten.

Minnesota is at home, a place they play at a completely different level. But Dallas just played at New Orleans when New Orleans was thought to be the best in the league. The Cowboys took that crowd out of the game, they can do it again.

If Minnesota does win here, they will win the Super Bowl. Dallas wins 23-20.

Jets
Chargers -7

This is a tougher pick than I thought. I think the Jets backed in, then got to play the worst playoff team in round one. But they matchup very well with what the Chargers like to do. San Diego is a deep passing team, they take deep drops and fire the ball downfield more than any other team in the league. Problem is, the Jets will not allow that. The Jets will bring pressure, press the receivers and force Rivers to get rid of the ball sooner than he wants. To score the Chargers will have to drive the ball down field one first down at a time not in forty yard chunks.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets have been scoring with broken plays, wildcat gimics, rollouts and other oddities in the last couple of weeks. I just think it will take some convetional scoring to get a road win here. Can Sanchez stay in the pocket to hit a big play? Can the Jets run successfully in this game?

I think the Jets could run well against the Chargers. I also think the Jets could contain the Chargers downfield. But they won't. The Chargers will jump out quickly, taking the Jets out of their running game, and making the blitzes more predictable. The problem with schemes like Rex Ryans are if the defense gets behind, the blitzes become more predictable and the more the offense has the ball the more comfortable they get with the aggressive style. Carson Palmer had guys open all over the field last week but kept on missing high. Rivers would have to throw the ball out of the stadium to miss all of his 6'5" WRs. This game could get ugly.
Chargers 24-13