Packers-Cardinals Prediction

Now to the game we care the most about. There is a lot going on back and forth regarding the 33-7 win for the Packers last week. Is Whisenhunt angry with McCarthy or his own players? I don't know, and frankly I do not give a shit. If Whisenhunt is angry with McCarthy for running a NFL offense, quit bitching. It isn't like the Packers put up 50 points. Rodgers was out of the game with plenty of time left in the third quarter, I see no problem with the way McCarthy played it. In fact, I loved the way McCarthy played it, I think he showed that if the Packers are ever in the position the Colts were, undefeated and everything clinched, that the Packers would play to win. Isn't that why we play sports, to win? I hate what the Colts did.

The Cardinals have made a lot of excuses regarding their performance last week. I am sick of that too. If they know they were not playing to win, why say so in the media, just show up on Sunday and kick the Packers ass. I get the feeling there is a lot of excuse-making in Arizona.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin.

3rd Down %
GB 47
Ari 36

3rd Down % Defense
GB 36
Ari 35

Green Bay has a huge advantage here. Both defenses hold the other team about the same, but the conversion rate for the Packers is incredible. More on this stat later.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
GB 379
Ari 344

Ave Points Scored
GB 29
Ari 23

The offensive edge goes to Green Bay, it is not very close. Green Bay can move the sticks as proven by the 3rd down conversion rate, and they can score quickly as they average 13 yards per points, only New Orleans and San Diego have a better 12 yards per point. Philly has a similar yards per point to Green Bay, but Philly does not move the sticks with a poor conversion rate.

The point is this, the Packers can move the sticks or get into a quick strike shoot-out. Offensive flexibility is crucial in the playoffs.

Ave Yards Defense
GB 284
Ari 346

Ave Points Allowed
GB 18
Ari 20

Green Bay gets the edge here but be wary of the Arizona pass rush. When the Cardinals turn it on they can really create problems.

Tunrover Margin
GB 22
Ari -5

The negative turnover margin number can usually be a fatal flaw for the playoffs. The fact is this, the Packers do not turn the ball over, the Cardinals are very susceptable to turnovers.

Looking at the stats, this game is very one-sided for Green Bay, they have the advantage in almost every area.

Quarterback
Push. I am not giving Warner the nod. He is almost 40, Rodgers is in his early prime. This is Rodgers first playoff game, and it is on the road, but Rodgers does not turn it over. Unless Rodgers plays a completely uncharacteric game, these two should even each other out. Rodgers gets an advantage due to his mobility which could make up for his inexperience.

Coach
Push. Whisenhunt has been to a Super Bowl as a Head Coach, and won as an assistant. But Dom Caper has to figure into this equation and I feel his experience evens this out. If a gun was put to my head than I will go with Whisenhunt, but by a small margin. McCarthy can make a name for himself this season by making a run without Favre as his QB.

Defense
Packers. All stats point to Green Bay and I do not feel the stats lie. The Cardinals have played a couple of great games on defense but I think the Packers diversity could scare the Cardinals out of some of their blitzes. The Cardinals are at their best with very complex pressure schemes, the problem with that style is the propensity to giving up a big play and the Packers have several guys that can break off a big play, Grant, Driver, Jennings, Finley, Nelson, Jones. The Packers have 6 legit weapons that can break off a 60 yarder. Teams like the Giants and even the Vikings do not have that many legit weapons. The Gianst really only had Bradshaw and maybe Nicks. The Vikings have Peterson, Harvin, and Rice, those are three big weapons but you can account for three guys while it is very difficult to account for 5 guys on a particular play. The Cardinals need to get lucky with defensive calls to prevent big plays, if their coordinator guesses right, they look great, if not, the Packers will have big plays.

X Factor(s)
Kurt Warner. Larry Fitzgerald. Young team on Road.
All of those factor in. I did not give Warner the QB advantage, but he can be an XFactor that gets hot. Warner takes a lot of chances, if he is on fire I liken it to a hot 3point shooting team in March Madness. When Davidson got hot from three, the Badgers had no shot and Kansas(who won it all) also almost got knocked out. Warner along with Larry can make enough plays to knock out the Packers. If they get a couple big plays early the Packers may panic since they are a very young team.


I have to be honest, the Packers are just better. They are more physical, more consistant, and just plain better. Unless Warner and Larry get hot early and often I see no way the Cardinals can win. I do not care if they are mad or not, the Packers have come to play for 8 straight weeks, I see no reason why they would not come to play here.

I will say this, if it looks like the Cardinals are in a rhythm early McCarthy needs to go to a ball control offense. He cannot get into a shootout like they did with Pittsburgh. The Packers have the ability to win a shoot-out or ball control game as evidenced by their great 3rd down conversion rate and quick strike ability. They need to use that to their advantage in this game. Get the Cardinals off rhythm by playing keep away.

The Cardinals have no answer for Mathews so they will overcompensate for him allowing Jones or Barnett to hit Warner right in the face. Do not be surprised if Warner fumbles or even gets knocked out of the game. They really struggled with Mathews so you have to expect adjustments and if a blitzer comes free right in Warners face, watch out.

Packers 31-21

IF THE PACKERS WIN
Watch Out. I am nervous about this game simply because of the inexperience of the team and the ability of Warner to turn it on. But if Green Bay gets settled in and just plays their game, they will win. Then everybody else in the NFC better be worried.

The Packers and Vikings are really the only legit contenders at this point in the NFC. All of the other teams have bigger flaws. The Packers and Vikings are great against the run, both get to the passer, and both convert 3rd downs. The Saints are just bad on defense at this point and the Cowboys have trouble scoring, bad converting 3rd downs and have Wade Phillips.

The Packer and Vikings can play any style you want. They can churn the sticks or hit you quickly. The problem with the Vikings is Childress holds them back. McCarthy does not hold the Packers back, in fact his weakness in the regular season(not running early) can be a strength in the playoffs.

In the playoffs you want to start guns ablazing. Get up quickly, pass to grab the lead, run to control the game after that. Teams panic in the playoffs, especially favorites. Hit the defense with quick passing before they know what hits them. Defenses need to settle into a game and quick effective passing gets them off-balance from the start. Childress always does this wrong, he will force the run until they get behind. If the Vikings came out firing early they could grab a lead than ice it with Peterson. The problem there, however, is the Peterson fumbles. There is no secret at this point that Peterson fumbles, even worse, because of his fumbling reputation more guys are going after the ball. Usually in the playoffs if there is something that really scares you about your own team it will be that exact problem that ends your season. With the Vikings that worry has to be Peterson's fumbling. For the Packers, it is Jarret Bush. I do not know about other Packer fans, but I am very comfortable with the idea that our biggest worry is our Nickel CB/Special Teams player opposed to the Vikings biggest concern being their best player.

If the Packers get through the Arizona game I guarantee it will be Minnesota or Green Bay in the Super Bowl. Both teams can really play all offensive styles and that is vital. If either team gets down multiple scores, no problem, they can come back quickly with big plays. If either gets the lead, they can grind you out of the game by churning first down after first down.