Painful End to Packers Season

First, I have to apoligize for the pathetic showing of my playoff picks, I went 0-4. In the regular season my picks against the spread were a very respectable
132-105, slightly over 55%. That is good enough to win you money. What Happened? How did I miss all four?

NYJ-Cin
I gave a substantial advantage to Cincy here due to Carson Palmer. At one point it became obvious that Carson Palmer was really hurt or just sucks. I hope for him that he has an injury. I thought the Bengals would force Sanchez to beat them from the pocket and they did not. The big plays the Jets made came on play action roll outs. Good for them, but I think they have a false confidence right now and I will continue to predict a loss for them. There are much better QBs ahead and I cannot imagine the Jets continueing to advance without having to throw.

Revis was really good. He defended the back shoulder fade better than anyone I have ever seen, he even intercepted it. Incredible.

Cowboys-Eagles
Extremely disappointing game. It felt like the Eagles laid down again. I was very unimpressed with their offensive gameplan. I would have gotten McNabb on the move early to get him some rollout completions. Nope. He bounced his first pass 5 yards short throwing from the pocket, then a weak run, then another incompletion, punt. The Eagles just couldn't get anything going and they only got the one big play when it mattered. The game was already going poorly for them but the Vick fumble killed them.

Ravans-Pats
This was over early as well. The Pats are too predictable on offense and looked very uninspired on defense. Horrible game to watch.

Packers
This has to rank right up there with the 2008 NFC Championship game and the 4th and 26 game against the Eagles several years ago as the most painful Packer playoff losses. This was a shot right to the gut. I think everybody would have been fine, disappointed, but fine with the loss on the field goal. We could see that ending coming. But when Arizona missed the kick, then Green Bay won the overtime toss, all Packer fans felt like we were going to win. Then when we saw the first play develop as a deep drop play action, we all knew a deep pass was coming, then the shot of Jennings breaking free only to see the ball sail over his head. We had it right there.

Two plays later our season was over. No flags, nothing to review. Play over, game over, season over. This is what can be really tough about sports, especially as a fan. Sure it is tough for players, but they can get back to work and start preparing for next season fairly soon. We have to sit and wait until preseason to see anything again for our team. That is why these losses are so much tougher on the fans, we cannot do anything about it to get the taste out of our mouth. Players can get back to work, allowing themselves to put painful moments in the past much quicker.

Why We Lost

The pass coverage was horrendous several times this year and it showed up again. This turned out to be a fatal flaw. When Harris and Blackmon went down earlier this season the Packers were forced to put too many weak DBs into the game.

Another element of the weak coverage is something that was discussed regarding how the ILBs on the roster do not fit the 3-4. More time was spent on how Barnett and Hawk will be a liability in the run game, but they were a problem all year in the passing game more than anything. This is not their fault. For a successful 3-4 pass defense you have to have taller LBs. It creates an illusion that the middle is covered, without that, the middle can look wide open, and it was yesterday.

The middle of the field is open against all 3-4 teams, the teams that are better at defending it, Dallas, have taller LBs to help make this area look covered. Against these teams there is much less room to fit it in.

Another issue that is Green Bay specific is how they treat bunched formations and certian motion. Since the Bob Sander days the secondary backs off when a team goes into a bunch formation or when an outside WR motions inside. This looks like it is a automatic adjustment that the secondary is coached to do. It must be changed. The Packers have to start mixing up how they adjust to these kind of formations.

Combine this natural opening with hot QB and a gameplan that took Green Bay out of any press coverage and you get what we saw yesterday.

Positives
Rodgers, Finley, and Jennings could become the best offensive trio in the game. Seriously.

Finley: Nobody could guard Finley, not corners, LBs, Safeties, nobody. We saw this in preseason and it showed up huge in this game. He will become a focal point for opposing defenses next season. Watch for the Packers to split him out a lot next year while having a bunch of WRs on the other side. The Finley side will require a DB and Safety leaving too few defenders to cover the bunch. I really do not know how you can defend that.

Jennings: He had a tough start to the year, but really showed up in this game. I look for him to come out better next year and really put up some great numbers.

Rodgers: The first pick was a bad decision. He has to get rid of the ball at the end on the fumble, it was a three step drop. 1, 2, 3, plant, throw. It has to happen that way, the pass protection does not setup a pocket so you cannot sit in there. Throw the ball or take off up the middle on a scramble. There can be nothing in between. Other than those two mistakes, he played great. Everything was going wrong, but he kept plugging away. If there were playing any other QB on Sunday they would have been able to overcome the horrible start and get a comfortable win.
It is also very important, even in a loss, for Rodgers and the entire team to get playoff experience. Even more importantly, I think it is important to suffer a tough playoff loss. I have always liked the NFL better when teams had to work their way up, I never have been a fan of the teams coming out of nowhere to get a Super Bowl win. I feel you should have to have some disappointment before getting the ultimate reward. That is what is weird about the Pats, they had all of their success before any disappointment.

How will Green Bay Improve?
It doesn't take a NFL expert to identify areas that need to be improved. OLine and Pass Coverage are at the top of the list. But how? I really think the Packers have to bring in a couple of free agents. They need to plug in veteran free agents into some of these competition postions instead of undrafted free agents.

Pass Coverage: Bush, Bell, and Bigby should not be out there at the worst, should be given heavy competition at best. The Pacckers will get Blackmon and Harris back, but along with that they need to bring in serious contenders for starting/backup Nickel and Dime roles. The secondary depth has to be improved.

LineBacker: Improving pass coverage also includes an upgrade at LB. I am not sure the best way to go about this, but I do not think Barnett, Hawk, Jones and Chillar are the answer for three of the LB spots. Only Mathews position should be locked in, I think at least one free agent or draft pick needs to be brought in for competion at LB, maybe one of each. Jones worked out OK as a 7th rounder, but he is still a 7th rounder for a reason. The Cowboys defense has taken off because Spencer has become a bookend to Ware. Spencer is a first rounder, Ware is a high first rounder. The Packers need to get another good athlete with better measurables into the mix.

OLine: Tauscher and Clifton need to be brought back. I do not care what the cost is. Bring these two back as a fallback plan at the worst. I would also like to see another FA brought in but I am not very optimistic. Add a prospect with the first or second pick would be the best option.

Now, how can you fix all of this in one season? You cannot. If the Packers bring back Clifton and Tauscher their OLine will be good enough to win with them and Lang. Then, they could add a 3rd rounder or better to the mix. The secondary will also have to be boosted through the draft. I do think a better fit at ILB can be found through Free Agency but I am unsure they will. Another pass rusher opposite Mathews will have to be drafted.

My guess is the Packers grab a secondary player, OT, and pass rusher in the first four rounds and hopefully bring in additional competition in the secondary and at ILB. I would actually put another Pass Rusher at the top of the list. Great Pass rushers are not easily found late in the draft, there can be misses early, but I would like a 1st rounder spent on another pass rusher. With the Packers offense, getting to the QB should be prioritized before anything outside of protecting Rodgers. The NFL game will continue to just be a bunch of shootouts. The rules and quality of QBs dictate that. There really will be no stopping of offenses, but a couple of big plays on the QB will be the only real defense possible.

If Buluga from Iowa is still there at OT in the first, by all means take him. If there is the huge dropoff that I expect after the run of OTs get drafted the Packers have to get a Pass Rusher, Coverage player whether it is a Safety or CB, if neither of those are available I would go after the best playmaker available especially if it is a RB/Kick Returner.

I have backed off on my desire for a RB. I still think they could use more speed at the position and if CJ SPiller was available when the Packers pick in the first round it would be worth the pick. Spiller could instantly help the kick return game and could add a deadly big strike running option out of the spread formations. Going back to my setup from before. You have Finley split out on one side, three WRs bunched on the other side and Spiller in the backfield with Rodgers. Now, defenses ignore the running option out of this because Grant is not a big play guy. This may be why you see the Packers motion him out so often leaving the backfield empty, they want to throw but the defense is not accounting for Grant until he is motioned out. When he has broke off plays it has always been due to a team being caught in a bad blitz or a horrible angle by the DB, not because the defense was expecting pass. Teams can ignore the Packer run from spread formations because they can still limit Grant to a 4-5 yard gain. A guy like Spiller could change that.

In all, this experience will be great for the team. With QBs like Brees, Favre, Romo, Manning, and Rivers on the horizon this defense could not hold up in coverage. A loss was imminent. If you are going to lose a playoff game in devastating fashion it may as well be here at Arizona. Next year the focus has to be to start fast, in the season and in all games. With the Packers explosive offense they could put a lot of games away by halftime. McCarthy has to identify what is causing the slow starts and change that. Get the division, and strive for home field advantage. Even though this offense would prefer dome or warm weather conditions, this defense needs the home crowd. Since the majority of fixes to this defense will likely come through the draft, the Packers have to get them at home for any hope that they will be able stop the elite QBs.