Ravens-Patriots Prediction

This game has the least buzz of the playoff games for me, maybe it is due to people writing off the Pats now that Welker is out, but something seems stale with this game. This game seems stale but the game itself will not, I foresee a very competitive game.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin.

3rd Down %
Bal 41
NE 43

3rd Down % Defense
Bal 36
NE 37

The Downs stats virtually offset each other. Both teams convert and hold teams about the same.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
Bal 351
NE 397

Ave Points Scored
Bal 24
NE 26

Slight edge would go to New England for total offense, but with Welker out I think that slight advantage is negated.

Ave Yards Defense
Bal 300
NE 320

Ave Points Allowed
Bal 16
NE 17

Baltimore gets an edge here, but not by as much as you would think.

Tunrover Margin
Bal 8
NE 7

The stats above tell us nothing. There is one stat that I usually ignore that could become an issue and that is penalties, Baltimore commits a ton, New England commits none. Penalties could actually play a factor in a tight game.

Quarterback
This advantage goes to Brady, but it is not the landslide people might think. Flacco has really improved as Baltimore has put a lot of the offense on his shoulders. Last year if Baltimore got down multiple scores they were in big trouble, this year I have confidence Flacco can bring them back.

Coach
New England gets an edge, but again not by a ton. Harbough is a good coach, his teams are well-prepared and always show up to give a fight. The two negatives for the Baltimore staff are the number of penalties and the defensive scheme is not as effective as under Rex Ryan, which is not crime since Ryan has one of the best schemes in the league.

Defense
Baltimore gets the nod here. Suggs and Reed will both be back and they make a huge difference. The Pats defense has improved since the poor Saints showing but still do not possess the ability to get to the QB while defending the run and pass as well as Baltimore. With Welker out, Baltimore still possesses a good enough defense to control the game.

X Factor(s)
Home Field. The Pats are very tough at home, 8-0 this year. I think the Pat fans got a little spoiled with the undefeated season and whatnot, then Brady got knocked out last year so it has been two years since they have hosted a playoff game.
Ray Rice. Rice has the ability to take over a game. He did it this year in the second half against Minnesota and must be contained.

The line is New England -3, over/under 43. I am going with New England in a tight game 24-20. I think Vegas put this over/under right on the money. Both teams will be able to move the ball, but it will be the Pats that find a way to get one touchdown instead of a fg to get the win.