Packer Draft 2010 - Senior Bowl Thoughts

This blog will be heavily dedicated to NFL draft talk until the April event. The NFL draft has created a NFL hot stove because one draft can completely change the makeup of a team. Some people have been critical of Thompson, in fact, midway through the 2008 6-10 season it could have been argued that only Greg Jennings was an above average draft pick by Thompson at that point. Now, the list of picks looks something like this:

Stars
Greg Jennings - Should/could be a perennial pro bowler.
Jeremicheal Finley - Star in the making, redzone nightmare.
Nick Collins - Best safety in the division by a longshot, among the best in the NFC.
Aaron Rodgers - Name an under 30 QB you would rather have. Other that Big Ben, nobody even gets on the argument list for me.
Clay Mathews - His rookie year production and family genes almost guarantee an amazing career.

Starters
BJ Raji, James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Brad Jones, AJ Hawk, Sitton, Spitz, Lang.

Just a quick run through of the list above shows Thompson has nailed on several starters and some stars. He needs to because he completely ignores free agency, but the Packers have hit on some stars in past drafts.

Senior Bowl
The Packers blog at JSOnline is having daily updates from the Senior Bowl. Here are some snippets and my thoughts.

The Packers are keeping a close eye on running backs and linebackers, among other positions, here in Mobile.

Not shocked by this. The Packers really need a complement to Grant. Brandon Jackson is a great blocker in pass protection but you could plug in Havner to give you that. The Packers need a mix up at RB, especially some speed/hands.
I really feel you will see at least one, maybe two picks dedicated to the LB position. I would be willing to guarantee the Packers will bring in someone to compete for the OLB opposite Mathews. I also feel strongly that the Packers will look for a ILB that better fits the 3-4 in the later rounds.

They were very, very high on Idaho G Mike Iupati (6-5, 325), maybe even a good possibility when they pick at No. 23. But he won't.

I hope he flies past us. I heard a lot of great things about him on the NFL Network Senior Bowl daily wrapup but he goes against one of my strongest feelings. I want my big guys from big schools who are used to playing against other big guys. Sorry, I want my Oline and Dline to come from the SEC, Big10, ACC, USC or Boston College. If you are not from one of those schools, good luck to you, but I pass.

USC S Taylor Mays (6-3, 231) looks the part (physical specimen) and hits a ton, but there are questions about whether or not he's just a one-trick pony ala Roy Williams.

I would run away from Mays. I agree completely with the Roy Williams comparison. I thought Williams was going to be great, due to all the big time plays he made for Oklahoma, but big hitting safeties need to be able to cover. Roy could not, can Taylor? One thing working for Mays is the fact he was surrounded by so much youth at USC, maybe he was trying to do too much and that caused him to be out of position.

Clemson WR Jacoby Ford could bear watching as a later round pick. He's only 5-8, 181 but he's shown good hands and can return kicks. He's a former track star that can burn. Has the kind of speed the Packers don't have much of on offense.

I would love this. I know, I know, another receiver. But the Packers need a playmaker on offense and special teams. If they can get one later on that would be great. Adding another WR would not be the worst thing. You have to figure Driver's years are limited and you would expect Nelson to step into that role. That leaves Jones and possibly a rookie for the other slot WR in the future. Although the Packers have a very good WR core, they do lack top end speed, I do not recommend them using the Raiders philosophy of drafting speed over everything else, but some added speed could make them even more dangerous.

One of the top performers so far as been Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster. He's just 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds, but he's gaining buzz as this year's version of DeSean Jackson, the multi-talented weapon for the Philadelphia Eagles. McCluster has moves to burn, and he told me he expects to run around 4.3 in the 40-yard dash at the combine. He joins Clemson's Jacoby Ford (5-8, 181) and Cincinnati's Mardy Gilyard (5-11, 179) as part of the new crop of undersized playmakers that seems to be on the rise in the NFL.
Hard to tell if the Packers have started to turn their thinking on those types of players. They've preferred to go with more durable players, but perhaps the success of Jackson with former Packers assistant Andy Reid with the Eagles has opened the Packers' eyes a little bit more. Sure seems like they could use that type of explosion in their offense.

I already voiced my opinion on getting a playmaker but I will reiterate that we really need one of these types of guys. They are man coverage busters.

Michigan LB Brandon Graham just keeps proving himself each day.

This guy could be the 2nd round pick for GB. His production is better than his measurables.

A lot of people, including the Packers, were eager to see how Massachusetts OL Vladimir Ducasse would fair against better competition. He's done OK but he's really raw and will be a bit of a project.

Ugh, they just keep falling in love with small school big guys.

Packers fans should keep an eye on West Virginia offensive tackle Selvish Capers (6-4, 304). He's shown the ability to play on the left side here in Mobile and the Packers are watching him. He's got the kind of versatility they love. He's got really good feet.

Not totally sure how I feel about this. The Big East is below the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC, Pac 10, and Mountain West when it comes to level of play. If it is in the 2nd round than maybe, but I do not want to see a reach in the first round for a LT that has likely never pass blocked due to West Virginia's spread running attack.

A polling of about five NFL scouts revealed that none of them think that Oklahoma's Trent Williams (who isn't here) can play left tackle in the pros.

Which means he will be drafted too early by the Lions or some other bad team. Ouch, that was not nice. RTs should NEVER be drafted in the first round. I rank great guards and centers ahead of RT. You can always move a projected LT over to RT, but if you know from the beginning that a guy will only be a RT, pass.

Another prospect for Packers fans to watch is Penn State DL Jared Odrick (6-5, 301). He really flashed on Tuesday and needs to become more consistent, but he's a perfect fit as a 3-4 DE.

This guy also got some mention on the NFL Network recap. Not sure how I feel about it. If they think he can give a little more push in the pass rush from the inside than I am for it, but I think there are other areas of need.


Notes from ESPN:

Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster -- When you are 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds, you better be explosive, and McCluster is surely that. He is never going to be a powerful short-yardage back, but he ran downhill and was fearless between the tackles. McCluster is at his best, though, attacking the perimeter and making plays in space. He showed the quickness to separate from anyone underneath and ran by Alabama CB Javier Arenas at one point today. McCluster also caught the ball well and fielded punts cleanly, which is important because he needs to show scouts even more versatility than we've seen already.

I am falling in love with this guy. If he is available in the 3rd, great, but I do not think he will be.

Idaho OL Mike Iupati -- There is not a weakness in Iupati's game when he's lined up at guard. His quick first step, lateral quickness, and long arms make him a dominant force inside, and he is a nasty finisher who is not satisfied until defenders are on their backs. And while he struggled a bit when moved to left tackle during practice, Iupati is stepping up against the higher level of competition and based on what we've seen we have no problem giving him a late-first-round grade as a guard. In fact, he's the best guard prospect we've seen in the last two drafts.

West Virginia OL Selvish Capers -- Capers was the best offensive lineman on the South team on Day 2, showing good mobility when getting to the second linebacker as a run blocker. He also played with balance and showed good lateral mobility with his feet. During 1-on-1 drills, Capers anchored well and held his ground, at one point just erasing East Carolina DE C.J. Wilson on consecutive plays. He is not overly explosive and will have trouble at times with bigger bull rushers, and Capers needs to get stronger in the lower body, but he will be a good fit for a zone blocking scheme in which the emphasis is on getting into space and taking sound angles to defenders because he plays under control and has good feet.

I hate it when they say that a player would be great in the zone system AND say that they lack strength. WHY ARE WE USING A BLOCKING SYSTEM THAT IGNORES STRENGTH. Did the Packers not learn their lesson with Colledge?

Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard got off the line better than any other wideout duing 1-on-1 drills against press coverage. He beat both Ohio State S Kurt Coleman and Virginia CB Chris Cook cleanly.

I didn't see much else written about Gilyard so I will post this comment. It is huge to be able to get off the LOS, an extremely underrated element during the draft process. I do not care what your 40 time is if you can not get off the line.

AFC and NFC Championship Games

I cannot believe we are already here at championship weekend. This season has flew by faster than any season for me. After these two games comes a dead week, then a week with too much coverage. It is depressing that we only have three football games left in the year.

My playoff picks have sucked. I have underestimated the Jets defense, I still cannot believe an offense that scared of its quarterback can win in today's NFL, but Revis could just be that good. I overrated Philip Rivers. I underrated the level to which the Vikings can play at home.

One quick Packer note, and a reason why I think the future is so bright for Green Bay. As a Packer fan, you have to love the character and fight the Packers showed in the Arizona game. So many of these playoff games have been blowouts when the home team has gotten out to a quick lead, the Packers were the only team to put up a fight. That showed me that the Packers have the mental toughness and talent to do special things in this league.

AFC Championship

Jets
Colts -8

At this point what the Jets have been able to do cannot be ignored, finding a way to get a win at the Chargers when I thought they were the best team was impressive. The Jets will run the ball until they absolutely cannot anymore. Meaning, they will run until they get down by two scores, which they have not. How can a team this offensively challenged not get at least one bad break against it to get down by ten? All it takes is a fumble, a special teams breakdown, something and you can be down 10 points. The same could have been said about the Pats back in 2001.

One of the biggest problems I see for the Jets in this game is Rex Ryan versus Peyton Manning. You could argue that the best defensive mind in football belongs to Ryan, whose exotic blitzes and schemes create headaches for opposing QBs and offenses. You could also argue that Peyton Manning is the greatest offensive mind in football, nothing fools him, he always can find a tell. This matchup is the game in my mind.

The Jets will try to run at Freeney and Mathis, every team has. The Jets will be able to get some first downs but have to settle for FGs in the red zone because they will be afraid to pass and the zones will shrink in the red zone. On defense the Colts wait for teams to screw up, and so many teams do screw up on 10 play drives. On Offense Peyton will identify the blitzes, get into a better protection, and hit his hot read.

The game will come down to the Colts getting touchdowns while the Jets get field goals. Ryan will get to Manning more than any other team has this season. But when you have a great defensive mind going against a great offensive mind, I will go with the guy that can actually make plays due to being in the game and that is Manning. Since Manning will have the ball in his hand he will always be able to make the last adjustment.

Colts win, Jets cover. 21-16.


NFC Championship

Viking
New Orleans -3.5

I hate to be too simple with my pick, but whoever was home in this game will win. These two teams are so much different at home. The pass rush for the Vikings is insane at the Metrodome when the offense has to go to a silent count. I am not sure any team in the last 10 years could beat this Minnesota team at home, maybe the Pats from a couple years ago. The Vikings engulfed Dallas, and they did it with mostly a four man rush. The Viking secondary is weak, but when you can drop seven and still get to the passer that really helps. One underrated item with Minnesota is the ability of Leber and Greenway to cover as LBs. These are two of the better cover LBs in football.

Problem is, this game is in New Orleans. Minnesota will lose that big edge it gets from being at home. They will not be able to get to Brees quickly with 4 rushers, meaning either they will start blitzing or Brees will have time. Both scenarios are bad for Minnesota as the matchup of the Saints WRs and Viking's DBs is a bad one. It may be the biggest matchup problem in the entire game for either side.

Favre will make some plays, but I see some struggles with the Vikings OLine in the Super Dome. If this game was played at Minnesota or on a neutral field I would go with the Vikings.

Saints 28-24

NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

I had a horrible week in the wild card round going 0-4, after having a successful regular season at hitting over 55% of the games picking ATS I laid a stinker. I did go 3-1 in over/unders, but I always feel winning over/unders just comes down to luck.

Cards
Saints -7

Home field will be factor here. The old domes get so much louder than anywhere else. I also do not like the fact that Arizona has to play the early Saturday game, it makes no sense. The Packers and Cardinals play in a great, great playoff game, the last game of wildcard weekend, then the winner has to play the early game on Saturday? Why isn't the Cowboy-Viking game here? Lets put it this way, the Cardinals-Packers game saved a pitiful bunch of wildcard games for the NFL, so the NFL rewards the winner with a shorter week than any other team, for the only team that played a four quarter game. The NFL is great, but really makes some odd decisions.

I think the crowd, and the tired Cardinals are too much to overcome here. The Saints didn't take the foot off the gas during their end of season slump, they just ran out of gas. I think the Saints come out on fire, can the Cardinals match?

If I had one negative to point out about Warner it is this. He is a front-runner. When he is hot and his team jumps out quickly, he is great. During last season's run they were in the lead the entire playoffs, it was only in the super bowl where the team ever really trailed. If roles were reversed last weekend and it was Green Bay who got out to the early lead, I do not think Warner would have brought them back. He takes too many chances.

Saints jump out quickly and look much better than they are. Similar to the illusion they showed us for the first 13 weeks. 34-14



Baltimore
Indy -6.5

I would love to go with Baltimore here. I hate how Indy rested at the end of the year. But Indy is sick of hearing that. In past years where Indy rested, they heard how great they were for several weeks, not this year. Everybody is talking about how Indy will struggle here and they will be rusty. It will not matter.

Freeney and Mathis will create havoc if Baltimore is ever forced to throw. Another truth is that Baltimore and New York probably beat the two weakest playoff teams in New England and Cincinnati, Indy is a different animal.

But, the Saturday night game is always wild. I think the Colts will start slowly, you cannot take a month off and still keep things rolling. The Ravens will be able to keep this game ugly, saving Flacco from having to throw. Eventually in the second half Indy will grab a lead or get the game close with must throw situation, and they will get to Flacco. Indy 17-13.

Dallas
Minnesota -2.5

I flat out think Minnesota is in a lot of trouble due to matchups in this game. The pass rushing of Ware and Spencer could embarass McKinney and Loadholt. I am not too confident in the complexity of Childress's passing protections to adequetely adjust to these two players. Favre has kept himself clean all year so I do not think the Vikings are ready for this pass rush.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota will sorely miss EJ Henderson in this game. Dallas will run, run, run and without the thumper in the middle, Dallas should have success. I also am not sure who will matchup with Witten.

Minnesota is at home, a place they play at a completely different level. But Dallas just played at New Orleans when New Orleans was thought to be the best in the league. The Cowboys took that crowd out of the game, they can do it again.

If Minnesota does win here, they will win the Super Bowl. Dallas wins 23-20.

Jets
Chargers -7

This is a tougher pick than I thought. I think the Jets backed in, then got to play the worst playoff team in round one. But they matchup very well with what the Chargers like to do. San Diego is a deep passing team, they take deep drops and fire the ball downfield more than any other team in the league. Problem is, the Jets will not allow that. The Jets will bring pressure, press the receivers and force Rivers to get rid of the ball sooner than he wants. To score the Chargers will have to drive the ball down field one first down at a time not in forty yard chunks.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets have been scoring with broken plays, wildcat gimics, rollouts and other oddities in the last couple of weeks. I just think it will take some convetional scoring to get a road win here. Can Sanchez stay in the pocket to hit a big play? Can the Jets run successfully in this game?

I think the Jets could run well against the Chargers. I also think the Jets could contain the Chargers downfield. But they won't. The Chargers will jump out quickly, taking the Jets out of their running game, and making the blitzes more predictable. The problem with schemes like Rex Ryans are if the defense gets behind, the blitzes become more predictable and the more the offense has the ball the more comfortable they get with the aggressive style. Carson Palmer had guys open all over the field last week but kept on missing high. Rivers would have to throw the ball out of the stadium to miss all of his 6'5" WRs. This game could get ugly.
Chargers 24-13

Painful End to Packers Season

First, I have to apoligize for the pathetic showing of my playoff picks, I went 0-4. In the regular season my picks against the spread were a very respectable
132-105, slightly over 55%. That is good enough to win you money. What Happened? How did I miss all four?

NYJ-Cin
I gave a substantial advantage to Cincy here due to Carson Palmer. At one point it became obvious that Carson Palmer was really hurt or just sucks. I hope for him that he has an injury. I thought the Bengals would force Sanchez to beat them from the pocket and they did not. The big plays the Jets made came on play action roll outs. Good for them, but I think they have a false confidence right now and I will continue to predict a loss for them. There are much better QBs ahead and I cannot imagine the Jets continueing to advance without having to throw.

Revis was really good. He defended the back shoulder fade better than anyone I have ever seen, he even intercepted it. Incredible.

Cowboys-Eagles
Extremely disappointing game. It felt like the Eagles laid down again. I was very unimpressed with their offensive gameplan. I would have gotten McNabb on the move early to get him some rollout completions. Nope. He bounced his first pass 5 yards short throwing from the pocket, then a weak run, then another incompletion, punt. The Eagles just couldn't get anything going and they only got the one big play when it mattered. The game was already going poorly for them but the Vick fumble killed them.

Ravans-Pats
This was over early as well. The Pats are too predictable on offense and looked very uninspired on defense. Horrible game to watch.

Packers
This has to rank right up there with the 2008 NFC Championship game and the 4th and 26 game against the Eagles several years ago as the most painful Packer playoff losses. This was a shot right to the gut. I think everybody would have been fine, disappointed, but fine with the loss on the field goal. We could see that ending coming. But when Arizona missed the kick, then Green Bay won the overtime toss, all Packer fans felt like we were going to win. Then when we saw the first play develop as a deep drop play action, we all knew a deep pass was coming, then the shot of Jennings breaking free only to see the ball sail over his head. We had it right there.

Two plays later our season was over. No flags, nothing to review. Play over, game over, season over. This is what can be really tough about sports, especially as a fan. Sure it is tough for players, but they can get back to work and start preparing for next season fairly soon. We have to sit and wait until preseason to see anything again for our team. That is why these losses are so much tougher on the fans, we cannot do anything about it to get the taste out of our mouth. Players can get back to work, allowing themselves to put painful moments in the past much quicker.

Why We Lost

The pass coverage was horrendous several times this year and it showed up again. This turned out to be a fatal flaw. When Harris and Blackmon went down earlier this season the Packers were forced to put too many weak DBs into the game.

Another element of the weak coverage is something that was discussed regarding how the ILBs on the roster do not fit the 3-4. More time was spent on how Barnett and Hawk will be a liability in the run game, but they were a problem all year in the passing game more than anything. This is not their fault. For a successful 3-4 pass defense you have to have taller LBs. It creates an illusion that the middle is covered, without that, the middle can look wide open, and it was yesterday.

The middle of the field is open against all 3-4 teams, the teams that are better at defending it, Dallas, have taller LBs to help make this area look covered. Against these teams there is much less room to fit it in.

Another issue that is Green Bay specific is how they treat bunched formations and certian motion. Since the Bob Sander days the secondary backs off when a team goes into a bunch formation or when an outside WR motions inside. This looks like it is a automatic adjustment that the secondary is coached to do. It must be changed. The Packers have to start mixing up how they adjust to these kind of formations.

Combine this natural opening with hot QB and a gameplan that took Green Bay out of any press coverage and you get what we saw yesterday.

Positives
Rodgers, Finley, and Jennings could become the best offensive trio in the game. Seriously.

Finley: Nobody could guard Finley, not corners, LBs, Safeties, nobody. We saw this in preseason and it showed up huge in this game. He will become a focal point for opposing defenses next season. Watch for the Packers to split him out a lot next year while having a bunch of WRs on the other side. The Finley side will require a DB and Safety leaving too few defenders to cover the bunch. I really do not know how you can defend that.

Jennings: He had a tough start to the year, but really showed up in this game. I look for him to come out better next year and really put up some great numbers.

Rodgers: The first pick was a bad decision. He has to get rid of the ball at the end on the fumble, it was a three step drop. 1, 2, 3, plant, throw. It has to happen that way, the pass protection does not setup a pocket so you cannot sit in there. Throw the ball or take off up the middle on a scramble. There can be nothing in between. Other than those two mistakes, he played great. Everything was going wrong, but he kept plugging away. If there were playing any other QB on Sunday they would have been able to overcome the horrible start and get a comfortable win.
It is also very important, even in a loss, for Rodgers and the entire team to get playoff experience. Even more importantly, I think it is important to suffer a tough playoff loss. I have always liked the NFL better when teams had to work their way up, I never have been a fan of the teams coming out of nowhere to get a Super Bowl win. I feel you should have to have some disappointment before getting the ultimate reward. That is what is weird about the Pats, they had all of their success before any disappointment.

How will Green Bay Improve?
It doesn't take a NFL expert to identify areas that need to be improved. OLine and Pass Coverage are at the top of the list. But how? I really think the Packers have to bring in a couple of free agents. They need to plug in veteran free agents into some of these competition postions instead of undrafted free agents.

Pass Coverage: Bush, Bell, and Bigby should not be out there at the worst, should be given heavy competition at best. The Pacckers will get Blackmon and Harris back, but along with that they need to bring in serious contenders for starting/backup Nickel and Dime roles. The secondary depth has to be improved.

LineBacker: Improving pass coverage also includes an upgrade at LB. I am not sure the best way to go about this, but I do not think Barnett, Hawk, Jones and Chillar are the answer for three of the LB spots. Only Mathews position should be locked in, I think at least one free agent or draft pick needs to be brought in for competion at LB, maybe one of each. Jones worked out OK as a 7th rounder, but he is still a 7th rounder for a reason. The Cowboys defense has taken off because Spencer has become a bookend to Ware. Spencer is a first rounder, Ware is a high first rounder. The Packers need to get another good athlete with better measurables into the mix.

OLine: Tauscher and Clifton need to be brought back. I do not care what the cost is. Bring these two back as a fallback plan at the worst. I would also like to see another FA brought in but I am not very optimistic. Add a prospect with the first or second pick would be the best option.

Now, how can you fix all of this in one season? You cannot. If the Packers bring back Clifton and Tauscher their OLine will be good enough to win with them and Lang. Then, they could add a 3rd rounder or better to the mix. The secondary will also have to be boosted through the draft. I do think a better fit at ILB can be found through Free Agency but I am unsure they will. Another pass rusher opposite Mathews will have to be drafted.

My guess is the Packers grab a secondary player, OT, and pass rusher in the first four rounds and hopefully bring in additional competition in the secondary and at ILB. I would actually put another Pass Rusher at the top of the list. Great Pass rushers are not easily found late in the draft, there can be misses early, but I would like a 1st rounder spent on another pass rusher. With the Packers offense, getting to the QB should be prioritized before anything outside of protecting Rodgers. The NFL game will continue to just be a bunch of shootouts. The rules and quality of QBs dictate that. There really will be no stopping of offenses, but a couple of big plays on the QB will be the only real defense possible.

If Buluga from Iowa is still there at OT in the first, by all means take him. If there is the huge dropoff that I expect after the run of OTs get drafted the Packers have to get a Pass Rusher, Coverage player whether it is a Safety or CB, if neither of those are available I would go after the best playmaker available especially if it is a RB/Kick Returner.

I have backed off on my desire for a RB. I still think they could use more speed at the position and if CJ SPiller was available when the Packers pick in the first round it would be worth the pick. Spiller could instantly help the kick return game and could add a deadly big strike running option out of the spread formations. Going back to my setup from before. You have Finley split out on one side, three WRs bunched on the other side and Spiller in the backfield with Rodgers. Now, defenses ignore the running option out of this because Grant is not a big play guy. This may be why you see the Packers motion him out so often leaving the backfield empty, they want to throw but the defense is not accounting for Grant until he is motioned out. When he has broke off plays it has always been due to a team being caught in a bad blitz or a horrible angle by the DB, not because the defense was expecting pass. Teams can ignore the Packer run from spread formations because they can still limit Grant to a 4-5 yard gain. A guy like Spiller could change that.

In all, this experience will be great for the team. With QBs like Brees, Favre, Romo, Manning, and Rivers on the horizon this defense could not hold up in coverage. A loss was imminent. If you are going to lose a playoff game in devastating fashion it may as well be here at Arizona. Next year the focus has to be to start fast, in the season and in all games. With the Packers explosive offense they could put a lot of games away by halftime. McCarthy has to identify what is causing the slow starts and change that. Get the division, and strive for home field advantage. Even though this offense would prefer dome or warm weather conditions, this defense needs the home crowd. Since the majority of fixes to this defense will likely come through the draft, the Packers have to get them at home for any hope that they will be able stop the elite QBs.

Packers-Cardinals Prediction

Now to the game we care the most about. There is a lot going on back and forth regarding the 33-7 win for the Packers last week. Is Whisenhunt angry with McCarthy or his own players? I don't know, and frankly I do not give a shit. If Whisenhunt is angry with McCarthy for running a NFL offense, quit bitching. It isn't like the Packers put up 50 points. Rodgers was out of the game with plenty of time left in the third quarter, I see no problem with the way McCarthy played it. In fact, I loved the way McCarthy played it, I think he showed that if the Packers are ever in the position the Colts were, undefeated and everything clinched, that the Packers would play to win. Isn't that why we play sports, to win? I hate what the Colts did.

The Cardinals have made a lot of excuses regarding their performance last week. I am sick of that too. If they know they were not playing to win, why say so in the media, just show up on Sunday and kick the Packers ass. I get the feeling there is a lot of excuse-making in Arizona.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin.

3rd Down %
GB 47
Ari 36

3rd Down % Defense
GB 36
Ari 35

Green Bay has a huge advantage here. Both defenses hold the other team about the same, but the conversion rate for the Packers is incredible. More on this stat later.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
GB 379
Ari 344

Ave Points Scored
GB 29
Ari 23

The offensive edge goes to Green Bay, it is not very close. Green Bay can move the sticks as proven by the 3rd down conversion rate, and they can score quickly as they average 13 yards per points, only New Orleans and San Diego have a better 12 yards per point. Philly has a similar yards per point to Green Bay, but Philly does not move the sticks with a poor conversion rate.

The point is this, the Packers can move the sticks or get into a quick strike shoot-out. Offensive flexibility is crucial in the playoffs.

Ave Yards Defense
GB 284
Ari 346

Ave Points Allowed
GB 18
Ari 20

Green Bay gets the edge here but be wary of the Arizona pass rush. When the Cardinals turn it on they can really create problems.

Tunrover Margin
GB 22
Ari -5

The negative turnover margin number can usually be a fatal flaw for the playoffs. The fact is this, the Packers do not turn the ball over, the Cardinals are very susceptable to turnovers.

Looking at the stats, this game is very one-sided for Green Bay, they have the advantage in almost every area.

Quarterback
Push. I am not giving Warner the nod. He is almost 40, Rodgers is in his early prime. This is Rodgers first playoff game, and it is on the road, but Rodgers does not turn it over. Unless Rodgers plays a completely uncharacteric game, these two should even each other out. Rodgers gets an advantage due to his mobility which could make up for his inexperience.

Coach
Push. Whisenhunt has been to a Super Bowl as a Head Coach, and won as an assistant. But Dom Caper has to figure into this equation and I feel his experience evens this out. If a gun was put to my head than I will go with Whisenhunt, but by a small margin. McCarthy can make a name for himself this season by making a run without Favre as his QB.

Defense
Packers. All stats point to Green Bay and I do not feel the stats lie. The Cardinals have played a couple of great games on defense but I think the Packers diversity could scare the Cardinals out of some of their blitzes. The Cardinals are at their best with very complex pressure schemes, the problem with that style is the propensity to giving up a big play and the Packers have several guys that can break off a big play, Grant, Driver, Jennings, Finley, Nelson, Jones. The Packers have 6 legit weapons that can break off a 60 yarder. Teams like the Giants and even the Vikings do not have that many legit weapons. The Gianst really only had Bradshaw and maybe Nicks. The Vikings have Peterson, Harvin, and Rice, those are three big weapons but you can account for three guys while it is very difficult to account for 5 guys on a particular play. The Cardinals need to get lucky with defensive calls to prevent big plays, if their coordinator guesses right, they look great, if not, the Packers will have big plays.

X Factor(s)
Kurt Warner. Larry Fitzgerald. Young team on Road.
All of those factor in. I did not give Warner the QB advantage, but he can be an XFactor that gets hot. Warner takes a lot of chances, if he is on fire I liken it to a hot 3point shooting team in March Madness. When Davidson got hot from three, the Badgers had no shot and Kansas(who won it all) also almost got knocked out. Warner along with Larry can make enough plays to knock out the Packers. If they get a couple big plays early the Packers may panic since they are a very young team.


I have to be honest, the Packers are just better. They are more physical, more consistant, and just plain better. Unless Warner and Larry get hot early and often I see no way the Cardinals can win. I do not care if they are mad or not, the Packers have come to play for 8 straight weeks, I see no reason why they would not come to play here.

I will say this, if it looks like the Cardinals are in a rhythm early McCarthy needs to go to a ball control offense. He cannot get into a shootout like they did with Pittsburgh. The Packers have the ability to win a shoot-out or ball control game as evidenced by their great 3rd down conversion rate and quick strike ability. They need to use that to their advantage in this game. Get the Cardinals off rhythm by playing keep away.

The Cardinals have no answer for Mathews so they will overcompensate for him allowing Jones or Barnett to hit Warner right in the face. Do not be surprised if Warner fumbles or even gets knocked out of the game. They really struggled with Mathews so you have to expect adjustments and if a blitzer comes free right in Warners face, watch out.

Packers 31-21

IF THE PACKERS WIN
Watch Out. I am nervous about this game simply because of the inexperience of the team and the ability of Warner to turn it on. But if Green Bay gets settled in and just plays their game, they will win. Then everybody else in the NFC better be worried.

The Packers and Vikings are really the only legit contenders at this point in the NFC. All of the other teams have bigger flaws. The Packers and Vikings are great against the run, both get to the passer, and both convert 3rd downs. The Saints are just bad on defense at this point and the Cowboys have trouble scoring, bad converting 3rd downs and have Wade Phillips.

The Packer and Vikings can play any style you want. They can churn the sticks or hit you quickly. The problem with the Vikings is Childress holds them back. McCarthy does not hold the Packers back, in fact his weakness in the regular season(not running early) can be a strength in the playoffs.

In the playoffs you want to start guns ablazing. Get up quickly, pass to grab the lead, run to control the game after that. Teams panic in the playoffs, especially favorites. Hit the defense with quick passing before they know what hits them. Defenses need to settle into a game and quick effective passing gets them off-balance from the start. Childress always does this wrong, he will force the run until they get behind. If the Vikings came out firing early they could grab a lead than ice it with Peterson. The problem there, however, is the Peterson fumbles. There is no secret at this point that Peterson fumbles, even worse, because of his fumbling reputation more guys are going after the ball. Usually in the playoffs if there is something that really scares you about your own team it will be that exact problem that ends your season. With the Vikings that worry has to be Peterson's fumbling. For the Packers, it is Jarret Bush. I do not know about other Packer fans, but I am very comfortable with the idea that our biggest worry is our Nickel CB/Special Teams player opposed to the Vikings biggest concern being their best player.

If the Packers get through the Arizona game I guarantee it will be Minnesota or Green Bay in the Super Bowl. Both teams can really play all offensive styles and that is vital. If either team gets down multiple scores, no problem, they can come back quickly with big plays. If either gets the lead, they can grind you out of the game by churning first down after first down.

Ravens-Patriots Prediction

This game has the least buzz of the playoff games for me, maybe it is due to people writing off the Pats now that Welker is out, but something seems stale with this game. This game seems stale but the game itself will not, I foresee a very competitive game.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin.

3rd Down %
Bal 41
NE 43

3rd Down % Defense
Bal 36
NE 37

The Downs stats virtually offset each other. Both teams convert and hold teams about the same.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
Bal 351
NE 397

Ave Points Scored
Bal 24
NE 26

Slight edge would go to New England for total offense, but with Welker out I think that slight advantage is negated.

Ave Yards Defense
Bal 300
NE 320

Ave Points Allowed
Bal 16
NE 17

Baltimore gets an edge here, but not by as much as you would think.

Tunrover Margin
Bal 8
NE 7

The stats above tell us nothing. There is one stat that I usually ignore that could become an issue and that is penalties, Baltimore commits a ton, New England commits none. Penalties could actually play a factor in a tight game.

Quarterback
This advantage goes to Brady, but it is not the landslide people might think. Flacco has really improved as Baltimore has put a lot of the offense on his shoulders. Last year if Baltimore got down multiple scores they were in big trouble, this year I have confidence Flacco can bring them back.

Coach
New England gets an edge, but again not by a ton. Harbough is a good coach, his teams are well-prepared and always show up to give a fight. The two negatives for the Baltimore staff are the number of penalties and the defensive scheme is not as effective as under Rex Ryan, which is not crime since Ryan has one of the best schemes in the league.

Defense
Baltimore gets the nod here. Suggs and Reed will both be back and they make a huge difference. The Pats defense has improved since the poor Saints showing but still do not possess the ability to get to the QB while defending the run and pass as well as Baltimore. With Welker out, Baltimore still possesses a good enough defense to control the game.

X Factor(s)
Home Field. The Pats are very tough at home, 8-0 this year. I think the Pat fans got a little spoiled with the undefeated season and whatnot, then Brady got knocked out last year so it has been two years since they have hosted a playoff game.
Ray Rice. Rice has the ability to take over a game. He did it this year in the second half against Minnesota and must be contained.

The line is New England -3, over/under 43. I am going with New England in a tight game 24-20. I think Vegas put this over/under right on the money. Both teams will be able to move the ball, but it will be the Pats that find a way to get one touchdown instead of a fg to get the win.

Eagles-Cowboys Prediction

The Eagles-Cowboys game is the night game on Saturday. Over the years crazy things have happened on the Saturday night playoff game in the wild card round, divisional round, or both. I expect a highly entertaining game.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really only a few stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin

3rd Down %
Phi 36
Dal 40

3rd Down % Defense
Phi 33
Dal 35

The Downs stats virtually offset each other. Dallas is slightly better at converting, Philly is slightly better at defending 3rd down. Here is one note, this stat is a big reason I see Dallas having no chance at the Super Bowl. You need to be better than 40% at converting third downs. Big plays are usually limited in the playoffs meaning you need to move the sticks.

Ave Yards per Game Offense
Phi 358
Dal 399

Ave Points Scored
Phi 27
Dal 22

It is alarming that Dallas moves the ball as well as they do yet have as low of a scoring average as they do. Philly is a big play offense which is evident in their lower yardage totals but higher scoring.

Ave Yards Defense
Phi 321
Dal 316

Ave Points Allowed
Phi 21
Dal 15

The scoring stat is a big advantage for Dallas. The yards are almost identical for these teams but there is almost a touchdown difference in scoring.

Tunrover Margin
Phi 15
Dal 1

The stats comparison for this game are tough. Philly is a big play team, on offense and defense, that is always tough to gauge. Philly needs a big play to get things going, it only takes one for them to start rolling. Last week McNabb had Jackson a couple of times deep and badly missed on the throws.

The stats slightly lean towards the Cowboys. They convert 3rd downs slightly better, they move the ball better but do not score as much, their defense is better, but the Eagles win the turnover battle. I would not base my pick on stats for this game.

Quarterback
I am giving a slight nod to McNabb simply because he has actually won a playoff game. Until Romo gets a win, the pressure will be there. McNabb also had a bad game last weekend, he will have a better game this week. McNabb is one of the biggest reasons the Eagles have had consistent success but only one Super Bowl appearance. McNabb cannot go three games in a row without playing a bit of a stinker, he played a stinker in Arizona last year and that is why the Eagles lost.

Coach
This goes to Andy Reid by a landslide. He has never lost a first round playoff game, that is all about great coaching. He will have a great game plan this week, one predicated on getting first downs and not quite so much on the big play. Expect Rb screens, bubble screens, quick crossing routes, zone flooding. Reid will call quick read passes to slow down the Dallas rush. If things go as planned, in the second half when the Dallas pass rushers are tired, Reid will look to call some deeper drops for a possible big play. The pass rushers will be tired, miss the sack on McNabb, and get beat deep.

The difference in offensive complexity in this game will be staggering.

Defense
Dallas wins this category. But that advantage can be limited if McNabb can break just a couple of sacks and hits Jackson deep. McNabb can just drive you crazy, he can play a crappy game for 2.5 quarters then break a tackle and hit you with a 70 yard touchdown.

Dallas is getting a lot of love and it is deserved. They have one of the best pass rushes in the league with Ware and Spencer coming from the outside and Ratliff collapsing the middle.
Here are some issues I have:
1. Whenever everybody loves Dallas, they disappoint.
2. The Eagles throw out random stinker games every now and then, and it rarely foreshadows a trend.
3. The coaching advantage is very large.
4. Philly will find a way to make Dallas feel the pressure of the moment, I am not sure how Dallas will react.
5. Whenever everybody is down on Philly, they smack the shit out of you.

The line on this game is Dallas-4, over/under is 45. I think the Eagles will get this game into a fast pace. The Eagles will find a way to make a couple of big plays and I think Reid gets back to some west coast passing principles to move the sticks, Screens, Route Combos, etc. Reid will find a way to get McNabb into a rhythm with short passes. Then, at some point Jackson will break off a big play, whether it is a punt return or a broken play through the air. I think Dallas will move the ball but settle for too many field goals, while Philly will get a couple big play touchdowns to make the difference. This game will feel like Dallas should be winning but trading 3s for 7s will kill them in the end.

Eagles 27
Cowboys 26

Jets-Bengals Prediction

The Jets and Bengals square off in the first playoff game Saturday afternoon. In my mind this is the rematch where the previous game was absolutely meaningless, the Jets were desperate, the Bengals did not want to be there.

When looking at team stats a lot of numbers can be misleading so there are really three stats I pay close attention to, Offense YPG, Defense YPG, Points scored per game, Points allowed per game, 3rd down % offense, 3rd down % defense and turnover margin

3rd Down %
NYJ 37
Cin 40

3rd Down % Defense
NYJ 31
Cin 38

Ave Yards per Game Offense
NYJ 321
Cin 309

Ave Points Scored
NYJ 22
Cin 19

Ave Yards Defense
NYJ 252
Cin 301

Ave Points Allowed
NYJ 15
Cin 18

Tunrover Margin
NYJ -2
Cin 3

Looking at just the stats, the Jets score more, give up less, move the ball slightly better, and give up much less yardage. In fact, the only two advantages that Cincinnati has are 3rd down conversion rate and the Turnover margin. The problem is that these two stats can be killers. If you cannot convert third downs you are punting which is like a turnover if done too often. The turnover margin is really the big problem, only the Raiders had more turnovers than the Jets in the AFC.

The Stats give the edge to the Jets and that is probably why Cincinnati is favored by less than a field goal.

Here are some other items that I think about but cannot really quantify, this is more based on my opinion through games I have seen through the years.

Quarterback
This is the biggie in this game. Carson is not near the elite level everybody thought he would be at. His injury has derailed him, and there is a lack of weapons currently on that offense. But the Jets are scared of Sanchez and should be. If the Bengals can get a 10 point lead this game will be over.

Coach
I give this category a push. I not only look at the head coach, but the entire staff. The Jets have a first year head coach, but he has been involved in playoff games. This is Marvin Lewis's second trip to the playoffs as a head coach. Both of these guys made their hay by being Ravens defensive coordinators. I like the Bengals D coordinator, but I think that is offset by the Jets Special Teams coach and offensive coordinator. I do not think either team will get a significant schematic advantage.

Defense
The Jets have a better defense on paper by looking at the yards and points allowed stats. But, due to the qb discrepency in this game this is really a push for me. The Bengals are a very tough defense with two shutdown corners that allow Mike Zimmer to call a lot of blitzes. Also, with David Harris possibly missing this game, I see a push here as well.

X Factor
This category is usually based on a gut feeling I have or any weird item I think will play into the outcome. This game has a couple. Rookie QB on the road in playoffs. Cincy playing for Zimmer's wife and Chris Henry.
The Rookie QB thing is a biggie, but do not underestimate teams with any emotional motivation and the Bengals have received two this year with the death of Chris Henry and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife, who apparently the players loved.

Stats: Jets
QB: Bengals
Defense: Push
XFactor: Bengals

From my very scientific chart above I must pick the Bengals and I am. I think this game is very low scoring, both teams will run, run, run. There will be a lot of punts. The Bengals are not scared of their QB and they will get a tight win here.

Bengals 13-10.